Posted on 10/08/2008 7:50:04 AM PDT by thackney
Highlights
Average household expenditures for all space-heating fuels are projected to be $1,137 this winter (October 1 to March 31), a 15-percent increase over the estimated $986 spent last winter. The largest increases will be in households using heating oil and natural gas. The projected increases primarily reflect higher prices, although colder weather than last winter will also contribute to higher fuel use in many areas.
Strong global demand and low surplus production capacity contributed to the run-up to record crude oil prices in July. The current slowdown in economic growth is contributing to the recent decline in oil demand and the sharp decline in prices since July. Nonetheless, oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight because of sluggish production growth. Absent a major worldwide economic downturn that significantly impacts global demand, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are projected to average about $112 per barrel in both 2008 and 2009.
According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most recent projection of heating degree-days, the Lower-48 States are forecast to be 2.4 percent colder this winter compared with last winter, but 1.7 percent warmer than the 30-year average (1971 to 2000). However, regional heating degree-day projections vary widely; for example, the West North Central region is projected to be almost 5 percent warmer than last winter.
During September, Hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut in a total of 32 million barrels of crude oil and 165 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Recovery is ongoing and expected to continue at least through October.
Projected Winter Fuel Expenditures by Fuel and Region
The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this Outlook provide a broad guide to changes from last winter, but fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, market size, the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings.
Natural Gas. Households heating primarily with natural gas are expected to spend an average of $155 (18 percent) more this winter. Nationwide, about 52 percent of all households depend on natural gas as their primary heating fuel. The increase in natural gas expenditures reflects the combined effects of a 17-percent increase in price and 1-percent increase in consumption. In the Midwest, where 72 percent of all households rely on natural gas, a projected 17-percent increase in average household expenditures results from a 19-percent increase in prices and a decline in consumption of 2 percent due to the forecast of slightly warmer weather than last winter.
Heating Oil. Households heating primarily with heating oil can expect to pay an average of $449 (23 percent) more this winter. Only 7 percent of U.S. households depend on heating oil for winter fuel and most of these households are in the Northeast, where 31 percent of households use heating oil as their primary space heating fuel. In that region, the average household is projected to pay 24 percent more than last winter as a result of an 18-percent increase in prices and a 5-percent increase in consumption. Residential heating oil prices in the Northeast are projected to average about $3.90 per gallon during the winter season compared with $3.31 per gallon last winter. The projected increase is consistent with higher crude oil prices and projections of lower distillate inventories than last year going into the heating season.
Propane. Households heating primarily with propane can expect to pay an average of $188 (11 percent) more this winter. Propane-heated households, which represent about 6 percent of total U.S. households, are projected to see an average increase of 11 percent in propane expenditures this winter, but that increase varies widely by region. Western households are expected to see an average increase in expenditures of 5 percent, while Southern homes are expected to spend 16 percent more this winter.
Electricity. Households heating primarily with electricity can expect to pay an average of $89 (10 percent) more. Thirty-five percent of all U.S. households rely on electricity as their primary heating fuel, ranging from 12 percent in the Northeast to 59 percent in the South. On average, electricity expenditures during the winter are projected to rise by 10 percent because of increased consumption and prices. Households in the South are projected to pay 13 percent more this winter on electricity bills.
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Yeah, my system is going to be turning 25 years, it's getting toward retirement time. I currently looking at either ultra efficient or combined heat and power with indirect domestic HW.
Too bad those PV panels don’t work with snow on them.
A roof rake and 15 mins., their back in action.
Too bad you cannot rig up something like a rapper used in ash control to shake it off when it starts coming down.
We nixed the NG idea when we found out that the local Grid charges a 'fair weather surcharge' that adds cost to warm day billing. (iow...if we see a ten day warm spell in January then we get hit with a punishment fee to make up for the energy we are not using).
I have a fireplace insert that heats most of the house until mid-November. I don't let the burner/boiler kick in until then.
What kind of idiocy is that???????? How can people put up with such stupidity?...............
Ive considered running heat tape along the underside of the panels to melt it off, but decided against going thru with it.
I would be concerned about an ice build up just off the panels.
Nearly every new house in this area is heated with NG. The owners have no options. The state approves the rates behind closed doors. There is no regulating of heating oil. Taxes yes but no price fixing.
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