On Fox Juan Williams made mention of those inside the Obama campaign who believe there will be a 5% Bradley effect. They say it is critical that the polls have Obama up 6-8% points on election day if he is going to win. HMMMMMMMMM? What is Obama up in most Polls?
I am not an identity politics voter, so I have no problem telling the truth. I am not voting for Obambi and it has nothing to do with race, but everything to do with slowing down leftist socialism.
Yes, there’s likely to be a LARGE Bradley effect. Here’s why:
Many media people have openly described people opposing Obama as “stupid” or “racist”. Nobody wants to be thought of as racist, everyone wants to be though of as smart. Many will answer “Obama” even though they have no intention of voting for him.
The other factor is Sarah Palin. Most women don’t want to be though of as “Sexist”. But many are quietly rooting for Sarah Palin even while supporting Obama.
This extreme Bradley effect could cause havoc on election day. These people will also lie to exit pollsters - all you folks at the news networks better play your cards very carefully - this could be an election night fiasco.!
As I have been telling my friends and family members for the last couple of months. At least since it was obvious that Obama was going to be the nominee for the democrats. Obama is going to lose in a landslide to McCain, and his choice for VP has given that landslide coattails, or maybe more appropriately petticoat-tails. This is going to happen because of the famous Bradley Effect.
For those who do not know what the Bradley Effect is, let me explain.
The Bradley Effect is when white liberals lie about voting for a black candidate, because they are afraid of being called a racist.
Let me give a couple of examples. I’ll start with the 1982 California Governors election race between the then Mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley and his republican opponent George Deukmejian.
Throughout the campaign, the polls had Bradley favored to win by as much as 15% at one time. The last poll before the election had Bradley comfortably winning. Every one figured it was over, and major newspapers around the country had their headlines already to print.
Then, the exit polls started to come in, and sure enough Bradley was the projected winner. A couple of early edition papers even had the headlines, "Bradley Wins! First black Governor in US history!"
Only problem was, people were lying to the exit pollsters. When the actual votes were counted, he lost in a narrow defeat to Deukmejian.
Then there was the 1993 New York Mayor's race between the incumbent David Dinkins and New York attorney General Rudy Giuliani. This was a rematch of their 1989 race where Dinkins held a 14 point lead over Giuliani the night before the election, only to win by a narrow 1% margin, that was the closest race in New York’s history.
Now, back to 1993. David Dinkins was again expected by the polls to win, but this time Giuliani won by a large margin. Upsetting the headlines of the papers like Deukmejian did in “82”.
Then we have all the evidence from this year’s primary race between Hillary and Obama. In some pre-election and exit polls, voters said they would or did, vote for Obama. Then when the votes were actually counted, Hillary either won when she was supposed to lose, or won bigger then the polls suggested.
It is well known that Obama became the democrat nominee because Hillary ignored the caucuses where people voted by raising their hands.
Hillary however won most of the states where voters went behind a curtain and voted in private.
Unfortunately for Hillary, but luckily for America, the democrat primaries apportion an equal % of delegates for the % of vote you get. Obama kicked butt in the primaries that had caucuses, and held on narrowly to get the democrat nod.
So, the "Bradley Effect" is white people unwilling to admit they would not, and did not, vote for the black candidate. The result is false poll numbers. No one wants to be called a racist, so when the votes are actually counted, guess what?
You got it!
The white candidate usually wins.
And everyone is left scratching their collective skulls, and asking,"What happened?"
This by the way, only happens in major elections when the black candidate is a democrat. Every time the black candidate was a republican the polls were almost spot on. In my conclusion, I give you two things to think about when considering this election.
1.) Obama is farther behind in the polls then we really know, he will probably loose in a landslide equal to Reagen's over Mondale. Maybe even bigger because, thanks to the "Pit Bull with Lips", white women are starting to break for McCain BIG!
2.) The real racist's are white democrat's who will not vote for a black candidate, but they also will not admit it publicly. Republicans will always be called a racist, so we don't mind admitting we will not, and did not vote for the liberal black candidate.
2-A) The exception conclusion # 2 is as follows....
If both candidates are black, then the liberals will vote for the black candidate, i.e Illinois 2006 race between Obama & Alan Keys. In this scenario, the white democrat will vote for the black democrat over the black republican.
So sit back and enjoy the show, this is going to get good! I haven’t even considered the Clintoon Effect. You know? The one that says Bill & Hillary are not going to allow this guy to win. Thus they will do what they did for Gore and Kerry, just enough to make it look good, but not enough to help him win. I will be enjoying the look on the media’s face when McCain wins in a landslide and we get the House back.
It may be tougher for the Senate, but hey I still have some hope for the Senate. All that's left is for the fat lady to sing.
, And I do believe she is warming up!
with any luck, yes
If Obama were simply a mainstream Democrat, or even a centrist Democrat with none of his current negatives in play, there would still be some measure of the Bradley Effect in this election.
I lived in LA throughout Tom Bradley’s mayoral administration, and he was everything that Obama pretends to be, but in the end, there were still some white voters who just couldn’t make the leap to trust him as their governor.
Like Obama, Bradley wasn’t all that well known outside his immediate political territory before the election. Many voters across California only got to know him during the gubernatorial race, and had to rely on the media’s portrayals of him to make up their minds. Same with Obama.
The difference, of course, is that Obama has negatives the like of which have have never been seen in a presidential candidate. These negatives powerfully amplify the so-called Bradley Effect, in my opinion.
I don’t think it is right, but I’ve been saying it WOULD come into play since Obama declared.
Personally I always thought Deukmejian benefited from the “Governor Gatling” effect. He looked a lot like the Governor on the TV show “Benson”.