The totals of the last polls in 2004 had Kerry leading about 47.4% and GWB running about 45.7%...
CO is important, to lose it puts McCain in a bad bad way, PA is a reach as is WI and MN.
RCP’s final numbers in 2004 were Bush 50%, Kerry 48.5%. And of the 85 national polls in RCP’s composite taken during the last two months of the 2004 election, Kerry only led in 7.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html