Posted on 09/28/2008 9:53:32 AM PDT by Chet 99
Zogby Poll: Obama Narrowly Won First Debate, But Race Remains Too Close to Call
Likely voters give the Democrat a slight nod on his debate performance and in his overall handling of the current financial crisis
Utica, New York – Likely voters nationwide who watched Friday’s debate in Mississippi between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain gave Obama the win by the slightest of margins, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
The poll shows that 44% believed Obama won the debate, while 41% said McCain did. Another 16% said they watched the debate but were unsure who came out on top.
The Horserace
9-26/27
Obama/Biden
47.1%
McCain/Palin
45.9%
Other/Not sure
7.0% Data from this poll is available here
Women gave Obama the nod, while men said they felt McCain won the first face-off. But some partisans had doubts. Just 78% of Democrats felt Obama won the debate, and just 80% of Republicans felt McCain won. Independents, by a four-point margin, said Obama won the debate.
By a 47% to 34% margin, debate-watchers said they felt Obama was better prepared for the event than was McCain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said that both candidates performed better than expected.
A Zogby Interactive survey before the debate showed that, by a 4-3 ratio, likely voters believed Obama would win this first presidential debate.
The online poll included 2,102 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
Not a Zogby fan, but interesting.
Look, lets hope Mondays poll numbers on a 3 day average starts going down...I suspect that Obama had a great day Sep 25...
But still this trend is not good, i believe the MSM effect has taken a toll on voters...
If obama gets in, watch for the MSM to keep him there for 8 years...
Can’t stop the fight...its depressing, but voters are swinging wildly back and forth....
The make or break moment will be Thursday with the Palin/Plugs debate. If she comes off clueless and over her head...it will be the final nail in this ridiculous campaign. McCain has a temper but he has yet to use it against Democrats and Obama. The only thing we will have going for us in October will be the greatest advertising campaign against the socialist commie in the history of elections.
McCain’s team had better come out roaring over the next 14 days...if they wait...it will be too late.
Ras did very well in “98, and laid a major egg in “00. Since then he has been right on. I don’t have the figures before me, but on his and in other posts here show he scored a direct hit in “04. Also, not that it matters, but someone said he’s a Rep.
Why are these polls so different?
“Uh, Ras has it a big Obama lead today; Gallup today has it 8 points”.
...uh, then stay home election day chicken little.
Yeah, I know he is a Republican. It is just since 2000 I have not paid any attention to him what so ever.
Even with Special Sauce he can’t get Obama up more than 1 point?
How much can the media truly persuade the majority of Americans if the majority of Americans think the mainstream media is totally biased against McCain.
I don't know. I could be wrong but I have a sense that there are going to be many surprises come election day.
Polls always reflect media coverage.
Americans say they don’t like negative ads, but they work.
Americans say they know media bias, but it matters not, public opinion always follows what the media says.
I think Zogby didn't like Bush very much.
The point is we don’t know who will win. Hanging on the latest poll by people who are in this business and have to keep you coming back for more is not going to tell us either. Who are there sample people, what city...Republicans in some areas are far more liberal than Democrats in others. Even if we hear a breakdown by party what does it mean? Polls can give ideas and it is good to be aware of them, but they aren’t the election.
I haven’t spoken to anyone who is wildly swinging back and forth. The idiots for Marxism still are, those for McCain still are and undecided I know still are leaning the same way they were. It is the polls that are someone’s business that are wildly swinging and it is working because everyone keeps coming back.
But if you can't handle reality, then find another source of entertainment. Reality says that as of this date, McCain would lose huge. He has over 30 days to recover, and he did it once before. But he might think about actually NAMING NAMES on the bailout and going after Obama, Johnson, and Raines. Commercials aren't going to work. He blew a monster opportunity in the debate, and the polls are reflecting that.
Ford was simply the most incompetent candidate we have fielded since WW II; Humphrey wasn't close---if you correctly put the Wallace votes in the Nixon camp, it was a blowout. And those people never would have voted for Humphrey.
The dynamics of the race have changed badly, and it's far more than the "suspension." McCain's numbers started to flag some time ago. Despite what Freepers think about his debate performance on "points," what the great unwashed were looking for (yes, those Lunz focus group people) was whether Obama seemed "presidential," and I think he accomplished that easily. What we interpret as petty and snarky, they interpreted as "confident." I bet if you break down any of the post-debate numbers, you'll find a lot of indies changed their view of Obama.
Now, I'm going to make a very unpopular prediction. I think Palin is going to have a tough time against Biden. I love her, she is the future of the party, but I have a feeling Joe will pull out bills that he sponsored 20 years ago that no amount of briefing books can cover. If she has a "Couric" moment in the debate, then you may well have seen the end of the campaign.
My fear is that Biden will pull out of his pocket some obscure bills he passed 20 years ago that she can't possibly be prepared to discuss or respond to.
But we all know, HERE IS THE PROBLEM WITH PALIN:
she could blow any and all of these questions out of the park if she could just answer for herself! But every answer has to be synchronized with McCain's view, which isn't conservatism. So she can't pull a Rush Limbaugh and just answer every question based on old-fashioned conservatism---because that might put her at odds with McCain.
Well, you seem to be overly pessimistic. A number of post debate polls have been saying DRAW or slight McCain win among the independents. (See the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA releases). Under your theory, all Obama had to do to win this election is not fall on his face in the debate. I don’t think he’s closed the deal by any means. Moreover, the ratings for the debate were dreadful, so I don’t think we’ve reached a “defining” moment by any means.
As for Palin - have you seen her Alaska debates? She was just fine. The McCain camp just needs to let her loose and be herself. Self-confident, but flubbing a few points here and there, will be far better than a tightly wound machine puking out talking points.
And I know some of the internals don't seem to support the overall numbers, but at some point you have to say all the polls are wrong, and I think we tried that in 06. Fool me once, . . . .
bmflr
Which debate did these people see? It’s obviously not the same one I saw.
Agree 100%.
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