Well, you seem to be overly pessimistic. A number of post debate polls have been saying DRAW or slight McCain win among the independents. (See the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA releases). Under your theory, all Obama had to do to win this election is not fall on his face in the debate. I don’t think he’s closed the deal by any means. Moreover, the ratings for the debate were dreadful, so I don’t think we’ve reached a “defining” moment by any means.
As for Palin - have you seen her Alaska debates? She was just fine. The McCain camp just needs to let her loose and be herself. Self-confident, but flubbing a few points here and there, will be far better than a tightly wound machine puking out talking points.
And I know some of the internals don't seem to support the overall numbers, but at some point you have to say all the polls are wrong, and I think we tried that in 06. Fool me once, . . . .
I agree with you. We must always remember that many people are just “not sold” on Obama. For whatever reason, people go with their gut when they are not as informed as the rest of us here on FR.
Therefore, if I was Obama I would not count my chickens before they hatch and if I was McCain I would let everything out against Obama. Palin needs to come out swinging in her “sweet” way and McCain needs to start putting out ads about all the associations of Barak Obama. That, I believe, should take care of the election.
Also, let us not dwell on the polls. Work hard and donate. I just have a feeling things are not what they seem.