Ford was simply the most incompetent candidate we have fielded since WW II; Humphrey wasn't close---if you correctly put the Wallace votes in the Nixon camp, it was a blowout. And those people never would have voted for Humphrey.
The dynamics of the race have changed badly, and it's far more than the "suspension." McCain's numbers started to flag some time ago. Despite what Freepers think about his debate performance on "points," what the great unwashed were looking for (yes, those Lunz focus group people) was whether Obama seemed "presidential," and I think he accomplished that easily. What we interpret as petty and snarky, they interpreted as "confident." I bet if you break down any of the post-debate numbers, you'll find a lot of indies changed their view of Obama.
Now, I'm going to make a very unpopular prediction. I think Palin is going to have a tough time against Biden. I love her, she is the future of the party, but I have a feeling Joe will pull out bills that he sponsored 20 years ago that no amount of briefing books can cover. If she has a "Couric" moment in the debate, then you may well have seen the end of the campaign.
Well, you seem to be overly pessimistic. A number of post debate polls have been saying DRAW or slight McCain win among the independents. (See the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA releases). Under your theory, all Obama had to do to win this election is not fall on his face in the debate. I don’t think he’s closed the deal by any means. Moreover, the ratings for the debate were dreadful, so I don’t think we’ve reached a “defining” moment by any means.
As for Palin - have you seen her Alaska debates? She was just fine. The McCain camp just needs to let her loose and be herself. Self-confident, but flubbing a few points here and there, will be far better than a tightly wound machine puking out talking points.