Hurricane Kyle prompts storm warning for Maine

National Hurricane Center ^ | September 27, 2008 | FORECASTER BROWN

[HAL9000]

HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE HURRICANE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST. THIS FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

[Fiji Hill]

On October 4, 1869, a hurricane devastated the coast of Nova Scotia. Unfortunately, the storm arrived at high tide.

Essayist E. B. White, perhaps best known as the author of the book Charlotte's Web (New York: Harper, 1952), wrote an article entitled "The Eye of Edna" in which he described riding out Hurricane Edna in a cabin on the coast of Maine in 1954.

[maine-iac7]

Wow. A hurricane that far north?

Every once in awhile = Gloria in 1985 was pretty wild - and "Bob" in 1991 did $212 million in damages.

Since "Bob", I bought a house in the woods - tall pines, poplars and maples too close to house for comfort - lost a few, with one on house, in the 1998 Ice Storm...

I'm tying everything down, filling up my oil lamps and got my wood-box full...

My oldest son, in Houston, just got his power back.

[texas booster]

Abstract of the article. It sounds like there was a terrific discussion on whether mass public broadcasting helps or hurts folks to prepare. Remember, this was 1954 and radio was the primary means of information dissemination.

OUR WINDSWEPT CORRESPONDENTS. Report on hurricane Edna's visit to the Maine Coast. The radio either lets Nature alone or gives her the full treatment, as it did at the approach of the storm. The idea, of course, is that the radio shall perform a public service by warning people of a storm that might prove fatal; and this the radio certainly does. But another effect of the radio is to work people up to an incredible state of alarm many hours in advance of the blow, while they are still fanned by the mildest zephyrs. One of the victims of Hurricane Edna was a civil-defense worker whose heart failed him long before the wind threatened him in the least.

[FlyVet]

Loring AFB 1985-1990. Really miss it sometimes, it was the peak of my youth.

Whitewater rafting on the Penobscot. Cathedral and Knife Edge, five times. Deer, moose, grouse hunting. Chasing after brook trout. Snowmobiling, cross-country skiing.

Got old, moved on :(

[maine-iac7]

but did you forget the best “LOBSTAR” in the world?

[planter]

On October 4, 1869, a hurricane devastated the coast of Nova Scotia. Unfortunately, the storm arrived at high tide.

The Saxby Gale.

Essayist E. B. White, perhaps best known as the author of the book Charlotte's Web (New York: Harper, 1952), wrote an article entitled "The Eye of Edna" in which he described riding out Hurricane Edna in a cabin on the coast of Maine in 1954.

My wife's grandmother wrote a poem about that storm. "Edna In A Hurry Came".

[FlyVet]

Oh yeah. Those little five dollah lobstah stands towards Acadia, back then. Eeeeyuuunnnnh. Yunnnh.

Stop it now, yah Mainah. Y'making me drool. Stop it!

I never forgot that little traffic circle near Kittery Trading Post, that had all those little tourist food shops.

I asked one of the proprietors how to get to KTP. He glanced down and saw that my truck had a ME licence plate, and treated me like I was an Idiot! LOL.

"Well hell you take a left here and a right there, go down to the second tree on the left, look to your right, see the barn there and turn left again you can't miss it! What the hell is wrong with you????"

(Paraphrase, of course).

Or when we'd show up at a certain fishing place.

The ol' veteran Mainas would see us strangers and start talking out loud among themselves, "Ya seen any them Atlantic Salmon up heah lately?"

"Nooo, nooo, haven't seen a one. None around heah, nooo, noooo." LOL

[FlyVet]

I'll never forget Bay of Fundy, how violent the change of tides were. It was like a river several miles wide, and you could see the standing waves and rushing water. That would be a place to harness hydro power, if it could be kept out of sight, below the surface.

I have photos of boats tethered to a dock in the morning. And we came back in the afternoon, and these boats were sitting in the mud, and we saw the dock was on 20-foot pilings. Sheez.

[Fiji Hill]

Oh yeah. Those little five dollah lobstah stands towards Acadia, back then.

In 2000, I ate at a restaurant in Houston where crawfish are cooked in big outdoor pots like thte ones at the lobster stands on the road to Bar Harbor.

[MrPiper]

Mmmmm, not to say this storm is trivial, but in the south, we don't even buy extra batteries for 65 knot winds.

Is the press overplaying this a little?

[AFPhys]

The predicted path going north from this latitude is very strange to me... and so far it is panning out that way.

[FlyVet]

I attended the Crawfish Festival near Biloxi years ago. They cooked them up like that, and they were delicious.

That is one wild party. You'd see 20 people dancing on top of folding tables, then one of the legs would cave in, and they'd all go sliding down into piles of crawfish shells, laughing their butts off.