You are in denial. I am a Commodities trader, who also had a Intrade Account from 2006 and 2007. What do you do for a living mate?
1000 times morre accurate than what? Explain
They had Obama at 44% ten days ago, and now have him at 54%.
They blew the 2004 race, the 2006 Senate Races until the last 3 days.
CM trader bump
As I stated, than FR postings (including mine). FR tends to wax optimistic regarding the prospects of conservatives, Intrade is more realistic. This was apparent in 2006, when the FR poll had large majorities predicting the GOP would retain the House and Senate, when Intrade was predicting the chances (as I recall) at less than 20%. If FR conducted a poll of McCain's chances right now, the chance of him winning would be above that of Intrade's, and I believe Intrade's prediction would be more accurate. Don't you?
You are in denial. I am a Commodities trader, who also had a Intrade Account from 2006 and 2007. What do you do for a living mate?
What am I in denial about, exactly? If you are a commodities trader then you stake your livelihood on the legitimacy of market prices. Is Intrade rigged? Is it too thinly traded? What is your point?
They had Obama at 44% ten days ago, and now have him at 54%.
So? Prospects changed with the bailout. If these percentages hadn't changed it would be evidence that Intrade was bogus. If swings are evidence against a market, oil went up $16.37 on Monday, are you stating that the oil market isn't legitimate?
[Intrade] blew the 2004 race...
Bush's contract dived on election day, when traders were snookered (like everybody else) by the exit poll leak. Schrum was calling Kerry Mr. President. It would be interesting to see a timeline as to how quickly Intrade became unsnookered in comparison to the media and everyone else.