As I stated, than FR postings (including mine). FR tends to wax optimistic regarding the prospects of conservatives, Intrade is more realistic. This was apparent in 2006, when the FR poll had large majorities predicting the GOP would retain the House and Senate, when Intrade was predicting the chances (as I recall) at less than 20%. If FR conducted a poll of McCain's chances right now, the chance of him winning would be above that of Intrade's, and I believe Intrade's prediction would be more accurate. Don't you?
You are in denial. I am a Commodities trader, who also had a Intrade Account from 2006 and 2007. What do you do for a living mate?
What am I in denial about, exactly? If you are a commodities trader then you stake your livelihood on the legitimacy of market prices. Is Intrade rigged? Is it too thinly traded? What is your point?
They had Obama at 44% ten days ago, and now have him at 54%.
So? Prospects changed with the bailout. If these percentages hadn't changed it would be evidence that Intrade was bogus. If swings are evidence against a market, oil went up $16.37 on Monday, are you stating that the oil market isn't legitimate?
[Intrade] blew the 2004 race...
Bush's contract dived on election day, when traders were snookered (like everybody else) by the exit poll leak. Schrum was calling Kerry Mr. President. It would be interesting to see a timeline as to how quickly Intrade became unsnookered in comparison to the media and everyone else.
OBAMMMMMMMMMMMA river Lies!
OBAMMMMMMMMMMMA river Lies!
Hannity was explaining that 54% poll this afternoon....the ABC poll (?) I think yer speaking of stated they had over sampled both democrats and black voters and under sampled republicans and independents.
This poll was crap if we’re speaking of the same one.
Another point I make to all here.......
Obama says a president should be able to multitask........BHO ya ain’t a president. Your a Senator and YOUR SUPPOSED to DO THE JOB YOU WERE VOTED TO DO !
If you can’t do the job of a senator due personal business and greed of running for president .....then you out yourself as the POS ya are.
Doom on ya Obama ! You just showed yer true colors & blinked !
Friend, they did not have the GOP Senate at 20% until Eelction eve 2006.
You proved my point, they are a snapshot in time, but your statements suggested they were always right at all intervals.
Also, if Intrade was so terrific, then why did they not reject the bogus exit polling and Bob Shrum on election day 2004 and keep Bush the favorite.
If Intrade traders are so fabulous at political predictions, why did they get duped by the Kerry campaign?