Posted on 09/24/2008 10:10:23 AM PDT by tatown
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama is maintaining a three-point, 47% to 44%, edge over John McCain among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 21-23, unchanged from Tuesday's report.
Obama had moved to as much as a six percentage point lead over McCain last week in the midst of the intensive news coverage of the Wall Street financial crisis, but the race has, in the last several days, settled back to the same type of slight edge for Obama that typified the race for most of the summer prior to the political conventions. Meanwhile, separate Gallup tracking data show that Americans continue to be very negative on the U.S. economy, including the highest percent rating the economy as "poor" (53%) so far this year.
The major news story of the day continues to be Congress' deliberation of the massive bailout plan proposed by the Bush administration and, in particular, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. It is unclear what effect the ultimate fate of that legislation will have on the presidential race over the next several days. Both presidential candidates are U.S. Senators and will be required to vote on the bill (or miss the vote, which would have its own consequences), underscoring the possibility that their ultimate support or opposition for what develops as the final legislation could be significant.
Meanwhile, the next planned event with the potential to shake up the race is the first presidential debate on Friday night at the University of Mississippi. -- Frank Newport
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
This is “registered voters.” You’d think less than 45 days out and they could offer a “likely voters” poll.
A really good Obama day (last Sunday) drops off tomorrow’s Gallup tracking poll. Actually, I suspect that it was more of a bad McCain day than a good Obama day, that is, a one day shift of voters going from McCain to undecided, but not shifting to Obama.
By my reckoning, the Gallup tracking poll has been essentially tied among registered voters over the last two days. This means that McCain is beginning to take the lead again among likely voters (the Gallup spread is approximately 4 points between registered voters and likely voters).
But remember Rasmussen, one of the more trustworthy - Had Barry with a good day yesterday, as it went to Barry +2 from even.... But no matter what the ABC is STILL ludicrous
...and a good McCain day (Saturday) dropped off today. This would suggest that yesterday was a good polling day for McCain. Tomorrow’s rolling average should be good.
Obama does not seem to getting anything of the poor economy at all or he would have shot up massively in the polls. Why is he still essentially ties if he’s running away on the economy? I smell BS.
I think the Rasmussen polling yesterday was an outlier (which can statistically happen about 5% of the time). He had McCain polling what he has usally polled during the last two weeks, but Obama polling about 4 points higher last night than what he had polled on any day the last two weeks. It just doesn’t make any sense to me that McCain would not lose any support, but Obama would suddenly get a one-night four point spike.
The ABC poll was a fraud. The registered voter sample was actually worse than reported: 54D to 38R, with projected likely voter turnout of 88 percent of registered voters. This has never happened in any actual election. Not even close. 2004 was one of the highest turnout elections ever with 62 percent turnout. And the spread between Ds and Rs in 2004 was dead even — not a deficit of 16 points. Indeed, in no election since 1988 has the spread on election day been more than 4 points. Even two years ago, in an awful election for Republicans, Democrats had an advantage over Republicans of only 3 points.
As I have said before, I have less distrust of Gallup than any other poll. It shows what I suspect is actually happening. The race is reverting almost back to where it was just before the beginning of the current financial mess. By my own personal calculations, the candidates have polled about even among registered voters over the last the days. This translates into a small lead for McCain among likely voters.
I wouldn’t expect Gallup to do a daily tracking poll of “likely” voters because of the expense and time needed to get the required number of likely voters. Gallup does usually show likely voters in its weekly polls.
I get the feeling we are loosing ground.. quickly.
This is all but over.
Ummmm....thank god you are not my team’s coach!
Seven weeks out and the majority of polls show Obama up anywhere from a couple points to the big spread in today's ABC poll (an outlier, to say the least).
When you consider the usual Dem voter fraud, the inevitable media "October Surprise" that ambushes McCain, and the absolute refusal of the MSM to focus on anything other than purported McCain/Palin foibles while ignoring the Obama laundry list, I'm not getting the sense that McCain is gaining the traction he'll need to pull it off on election day.
In other words, if these polls remain generally where they are up until Nov 4, the pollsters and media are going to have a lot of 'splainin' to do if McCain wins.
Hope I'm wrong, but I'm less optimistic today than I was a couple weeks ago, when it appeared that McCain was beginning to pull away.
Oh, really?
You’re really “loosing” me....
"Today, we need a nation of Minutemen, citizens who are not only prepared to take arms, but citizens who regard the preservation of freedom as the basic purpose of their daily life and who are willing to consciously work and sacrifice for that freedom."
John F. Kennedy
What happened to the Democrats of old???? Hell's bell's JFK...was a better conservative than 7/8's of Pubbies in office now.
By my internal calculations, Obama won Saturday but by only two points after leading by bigger margins on several nights last week. Sunday was a really good Obama day (or, more accurately, a bad McCain day which saw him lose some support to "undecided"), but it drops off tomorrow. I figure that the last two days have been roughly even or Obama slightly ahead (by about half a point).
One other thing that I should mention. According to Gallup itself, the tracking poll that reflected polling on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday was 49D, 39R (presumably including leaners), so the news for McCain is not as bad as we might have thought a few days ago. I don't have a problem with this because Gallup intentionally does not attempt to weight its polls by party ID.
I thought Gallup had reported about a week ago that they were only going to report likely voters...maybe that was Rasmussen.
what’s with the Fox news poll on their website all of a sudden Obama is way up??
Worry not my FRiends. I don’t care what the polls say, America will NOT elect a far-left radical to the presidency. Remember President McGovern? This is still a center-right country.
Defeatism is pitiful.
Six weeks to go. Multiple lead changes during a campaign are not uncommon.
McCain seems to be down in the polls generally probably due to the economic woes. He can’t seem to get the big message out - that the dems including Obama blocked Fannie reform. That McCain co-sponsored reform in 2006 and it was blocked by dems. That Obama, not his campaign personnel, was the second largest recipient in two years of all Fannie money in a twenty year period.
Does not help that msm is in the tank.
Hoping that McCain will crush him in the debate.
Again Ras is using a +6 Dem (39/33)voting spread which has not happened in a long time . In 2000 and 2004 the Dem vs Rep were even (37/37).
Do you think this is right ?
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