Internals show they oversampled Dems by 10% and oversampled blacks. Yeah, duh, O has a lead with only 28% Republicans.
I don’t think +9 Dem in party ID is much of an oversample. All pollsters agree that this year R percentage is way down.
I actually think Rasmussen may be wrong here, and Gallup happens to be closer to the real breakdown.
Pollster D R I (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000: 35 26 30 +9
Diageo/Hotline: 41 36 19 +5
Rasmussen: 39 33.5 27.5 +5.5
Gallup: 35 26 33 +9
ABC: 38 28 29 +10
In most polls McCain runs 5-6 percent ahead of the party ID gap, in this poll for some reason he did not - that may be an outlier.
I think he is about 3% behind right now; way behind in CO and VA, and about even in OH, NV and FL. He needs: (a) decent debate performance from himself and Palin; (b) a week of calm in the credit and stock markets.
Otherwise Obama wins, and it will not be that close.