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I don’t think +9 Dem in party ID is much of an oversample. All pollsters agree that this year R percentage is way down.
I actually think Rasmussen may be wrong here, and Gallup happens to be closer to the real breakdown.

Pollster D R I (Dem-Rep)
Research 2000: 35 26 30 +9
Diageo/Hotline: 41 36 19 +5
Rasmussen: 39 33.5 27.5 +5.5
Gallup: 35 26 33 +9
ABC: 38 28 29 +10

In most polls McCain runs 5-6 percent ahead of the party ID gap, in this poll for some reason he did not - that may be an outlier.

I think he is about 3% behind right now; way behind in CO and VA, and about even in OH, NV and FL. He needs: (a) decent debate performance from himself and Palin; (b) a week of calm in the credit and stock markets.

Otherwise Obama wins, and it will not be that close.

I'm pretty confident that McCain is ahead by more than what the polls show in OH. Someone reminded me last night that in most polls, Ken Blackwell (who is black) was running 5-10 points behind Strickland. In the election, he lost by 25. Now, that's the Wilder Effect, pure and simple, and it will definitely hurt Obama here and probably some in PA and MI. McCain has led in 5 of the last 8 polls here in OH. So I'm almost ready to call it safe. Same in FL.

I am worried about Co and VA. But I differ on what McCain "needs." All he needs is for Barry to talk without a teleprompter and people run for the hills.