Gleason: Palin will help GOP win 'four or five' congressional seats in PA

Politicker PA ^ | 9/16/08 | Alex Roarty

[impeachedrapist]

...[g]eneric ballots between Republicans and Democrats show a dead heat, Gleason said, "and that's caused Democrats to be very nervous about their congressional seats."

The chairman, joined by congressional candidate Craig Williams for the state's 7th Congressional District, spoke to reporters on a conference call hours before Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden campaigned in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The GOP appears to have its best shot at winning back seats in northeastern Pennsylvania, where Republicans Lou Barletta and Chris Hackett are in tight races with their opponents. Barletta is locked in a heated battle with longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) in the 11th Congressional District, and Hackett is facing first-term U.S. Rep. Chris Carney (D-Dimock) in the conservative 10th Congressional District.

Republican chances outside of NEPA appear less positive. An internal poll released by Melissa Hart's campaign showed her down five points to U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire (D-McCandless), a rematch of their 2006 battle when Altmire unseated her.

Gleason also pointed to Williams' race against U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Edgmont) as a potential Republican victory.

[impeachedrapist]

Careful. Todd’s a wilderness stud. He’s gonna whoop up on you!

[impeachedrapist]

Bump

[impeachedrapist]

Bump

[CPT Clay]

Congress doesn’t exactly have a stellar approval rating.

[CPT Clay]

Did you include Lou Barletta in this calculation?

[CPT Clay]

Impeached... Good thread!!!

[impeachedrapist]

Yes, Barletta is PA-11. Glad you liked the thread.

[HamiltonJay]

Altmire’s a party hack, he does what Pelosi tells him when she tells him to do it and votes against her when she gives him the OK to try to get re-elected. He needs to go, and it would be fun to see Hart kick the bum out and relcaim her seat. Don’t know if its going to happen, but I am finally starting to see her name, yard signs and interviews/exposure happening for her. But up until 2 weeks ago everything was Altmire, big TV and Radio campaigns, billboards, everything.. wouldn’t even know Hart was running against him. DNC is definately spending some money to keep Altmire in.

[CPT Clay]

It will be intersting to watch. She is a good candidate. I believe this is an anti incumbant year.

[HamiltonJay]

well saw first TV ad for her tonight.. so we’ll see what happens.

[impeachedrapist]

I agree, this is definitely shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year.

The below race just became a likely GOP pick-up, IMO.

FL-16, Mark Foley's old seat, went 54% for Bush in 2004. Freshman Dem incumbent Tim Mahoney had just over $1 million banked on 6 Aug. His GOP opponent is Tom Rooney, an Army veteran and nephew of Pittsburgh Steeler's owner Dan Rooney. Tom had about $200K on hand on 6 Aug.

For those not aware, a tape surfaced today (apparently from Mahoney's staff members upset with his treatment of his mistress), where he really comes off badly. Firing his mistress, and being a bully about it. After pledging to clean up the Foley scandal. [grin] Pelosi and Mahoney himself have called for an ethics investigation. This won't exactly hurt McCain/Palin's chances in the Sunshine State. :-D

[impeachedrapist]

House bump

[TAdams8591]

Back at cha! : )

[impeachedrapist]

BTTT

[impeachedrapist]

NY-20. District went 53% for Bush in 2004, and at the end of August the incumbent, Kirsten Gillibrand, had a 2:1 cash advantage over Sandy Treadwell

[impeachedrapist]

Good news from PA bump.

[impeachedrapist]

Even though I live in Indiana County I see Altmire ads but no Mellisa Hart....What is she waiting for?

Greg, I was thinking of you the other day, but couldn't remember your screen name. Did you go to Sarah Palin's rally in Melissa Hart's district (PA-04)? The governor stumping there was undoubtedly good news for Melissa, who has likely been helped by that loudmouth Jack Murtha!

[impeachedrapist]

GA-08 is a district Bush carried with 61% in 2004. Jim Marshall won by one point in 2006. With a Presidential election, he's facing a real struggle. Retired Maj General Rick Goddard was recruited by the NRCC to run against Marshall. As of 30 Jun the incumbent Dem had about $1.3M in the bank, with Goddard having $489K.

As of 9/30 Marshall had about a 2:1 cash advantage over GOP challenger Goddard. But this is a strong GOP district, and in a big Dem year with +3 Dem national turnout, Marshall managed only a one-point win. Keep your eye on this one, especially if McCain's margin in Georgia meets or exceeds Bush's statewide margin from '04.

[Perdogg]

I am assuming this would mean +5, correct?

[impeachedrapist]

WI-08 is a rematch from 2006, which freshman Dem incumbent Steve Kagen won by three points over Pubbie John Gard. President Bush took WI-08 with 55% in 2004. As of 20 Aug Gard had $651K on hand, while Kagen had $827K. However, Gard had no debt while Kagen had $469K in debt.

As of 9/30 GOP challenger and former Rep. Gard had $608K with no debt. Dem Rep. Kagen had $669K on hand, but $469K in debt. Definitely one to keep an eye on, especiall with a district that went 55% for the GOP during the last Presidential election.