Posted on 09/22/2008 6:56:54 AM PDT by tatown
Well Bless Their Naive Little Hearts!
Forget MN, WI, MI, NH. I hope they don’t spend any money or time there. If McCain wins the toss-up states FL, CO, NV, OH, IN, and VA he wins with 274 - without PA. If he wins PA he doesn’t need Colorado. Since most of the other toss-up states that I listed are already leaning McCain, he needs to spend most of his time split between CO and PA. I’d put Palin in CO and McCain in PA all week the last 3 weeks of the election. And then switch places each week. It’s going to be close!
It’s not trending more liberal though. It was closer for Bush in 2004, than in 2000. Being in the Chicago media market doesn’t help McCain, this is true.
I would add FL and NV to that list, although many think that NV will be in McCain's column easily. But what in the heck is happening in NC? Why so close?
Because there is an army of these poll watchers that continuously post this nonsense, try to make up reasons why they are what they are, and then argue over the results as to why this isn’t a good sampling and why this was taken on the wrong day.
In the end the same group of people have wasted hours and have done ZERO to actually achieve a win in Nov.
Every four years this poll circus starts up, and every four years they mean NOTHING to the final result. But God only knows all of these guys seem to think they know what candidates “ought” to be doing based on them.
Cripes..if they come out for Obama then we get Franken. Blech...
"To hell with western civilization. We just want as much of other peoples' money as we can get for as long as it lasts."
So sad. They were such good people.
Al
Franken
You actually might be right. Franken is running a great campaign in MN rolling over Coleman's poor showing.
The bottom line is this.
In order for Obama to win, he must flip
Iowa
New Mexico
Colorado
and not lose more than New Hampshire.
Iowa seems like a lock for him, and New Mexico looks to be trending his way, so he must win Colorado and not lose anything else.
For McCain to win, he has to win
Colorado
or
Minnesota
or
Michigan
or
Pennyslvania
or
Wisconsin
McCain is sitting pretty good right now because there are many ways he can win. Obama has one way to win.
In the last four years, it is trending more liberal while Minnesota is trending more conservative.
Eh, I moved to MN in 1984. It’s been trending lefty since then. Lots of socialist Scandinavians and Germans.
Disclaimer: I’m of Danish and German stock, but I’m no lefty. LOL
I totally agree with that plan, I’d include pit-stops in OH while crossing the country, but the concept is right.
So how do you account for the fact that Bush ran better in WI in both 2000 and 2004 than he did in PA, MI, and MN? Bush lost in WI by less than 4 tenths of a percent in 2004 and 2 tenths of a percent in 2000.
No, Wisconsin will only flip if McCain is strong enough to flip Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
No, if you look at the historical data, it is the other way around. MN has not gone Rep since 1960. If MI, MN, and PA flib, then WI will surely change, not the other way around.
No the other way around. Bush lost by 5,700 in 2000 and 11,400 in 2004.
Good analysis. I wouldn’t put any money on MN, WI, MI, or NH though. Slim chances after the Investment crisis. So it comes down to CO and PA in my opinion. McCain/Palin & Obama/Biden will probably pay token visits to the other toss-up states and then camp out in CO & PA.
psst - I'm Norweigan, Swiss, German, English, Dutch, and an eyelash of Italian.
NC is not close.
Heh! Would it help to say I’m a wee bit Scottish, as well. LOL
I always wished I had an Italian grandmother. We have an Atlas pasta machine and I can never get it right!
From 2000 to 2004, Wisconsin became more Republican. But from 2004 to 2008, Wisconsin became more Democrat.
Minnesota has been trending more Republican since 2002 with the election of Coleman and Pawlenty, and with the re-election of Pawlenty in 2006.
In terms of help, Republican Pawlenty can provide a great platform for McCain in Minnesota, while Democrat Doyle can provide a great platform for Obama in Wisconsin.
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