Good analysis. I wouldn’t put any money on MN, WI, MI, or NH though. Slim chances after the Investment crisis. So it comes down to CO and PA in my opinion. McCain/Palin & Obama/Biden will probably pay token visits to the other toss-up states and then camp out in CO & PA.
Aha! You said the magic word: money
Obama must put stop money in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania just to keep himself safe. Then he has to put push money in Colorado to try and win.
McCain has to put stop money in Colorado, and can put push money in the rest of the States and hope one falls his way.
Once he sees an opening in one, he can redirect money towards it and overwhelm Obama's stop. Obama can't afford to shift stop money for fear that he looks like he is abandoning those States and depressing his GOTV effort.
Campaigns are strategic at this moment, but we are getting real close to the shift to tactical moves. And tactically is where McCain looks strong right now.