Posted on 09/21/2008 4:47:53 PM PDT by Vision Thing
(CBS) Both presidential candidates agree the nation is in a recession. Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain, appearing in separate interviews for a special 40th anniversary edition of 60 Minutes, say the economic term applies to the current troubles and lay out their plans to solve the situation if they are elected.
Their interviews will be broadcast this Sunday, Sept. 21, at 7 p.m. ET/PT.
"Oh, I think there's no doubt that…when the numbers come out, that we are officially in recession," Obama tells Steve Kroft. "I think, for a lot of people, they've been feeling like we've been in a recession for years now. When their wages and incomes don't go up, and the cost of gas and groceries and home heating oil and prescription drugs are all going up, that feels awfully like a recession to them," says Obama.
Scott Pelley asks McCain whether he thinks the country is in a recession. "Sure. [but] technically, I don't know…Americans today don't care about what the, quote, 'technical term' is," says McCain. "Unemployment is up. Wages are down. Home foreclosures are incredibly high, the worst in many, many, many years. All of the indicators that affect the American family, unemployment being up - those people, they don't care whether technically we're in a recession or not. Fact is they're hurting and they are hurting very, very badly," he says.
The candidates were interviewed within a 24 hour period, Obama in Nevada this past Wednesday, and McCain in Wisconsin on Thursday afternoon . Their interviews will fill the entire broadcast Sunday, providing viewers a revealing side-by-side look at the candidates and their positions before their first debate on Friday, Sept. 26.
That would be worse than the “fundamentals are good” comment. You’d have Obama pouncing for the next 20 days over “Well John McCain says we’re not in a recession. He’s says the fundamentals are good.....BOOOO” Yeah, I can hear it now. There’s paper politics and there’s real politics. Yes we’re not techincally in a recession but I don’t particularly want to see our POTUS nominee spend the next two weeks on the trail trying to explain recession to the American people. A sure loser.
Not a good idea.
We are still waiting for the first quarter of negative growth, of the two quarters that we would need to have a recession.
What I think doesn’t matter. The fact is we are not in recession. The fact that we are not in recession still permits significant areas of weakness in our economy.
So, should we tax the strong areas, skim off the usual government inefficience, and then spend to turn the weak into the strong? I don’t think so. As usual, the government created the bubble, and the government should (but won’t) refrain from trying to solve it.
McCain's answer is the PC one.
The hacks at 60 Minutes (I won't dignify them with the title "journalists") were trying to play "gotcha" here. Too bad McCain didn't have the cajones to say, "No, we've got problems in the economy caused by the failure of the Democrat Congress to deal with spending...etc. etc. etc."
OTOH, McCain did say something that can keep him out of hot water in the LameStream Media on the subject, and since politics is the "art of the possible", he probably did the right thing.
Hussein is deserving a good arse-kickin' at the ballot box, and I hope McCain and Palin deliver. I'll certainly be on their side.
We'll see if that happens, but these should be the final numbers for the 2nd quarter in 2008.
Here's the latest as of 3 weeks ago from the Bureau of Economic Analysis dot gov. The GDP did grow to 3.3% last quarter:
--------------------------------
"THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008 BEA 08-38
Lisa Mataloni (202) 606-5304 (GDP)
Andrew Hodge: (202) 606-5564 (Profits)
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND CORPORATE PROFITS: Second
Quarter 2008 (Preliminary)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3)...."
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Yup. But remember, McCain, obama, and the 60 minutes crew are not economists. They don’t know the definition of recession and don’t care. Instead, they’re politicians (yes, including those on 60 minutes). You know it. I know it. They’re job is to scare us into voting a certain way.
As for what McCain said he’d do, especially about the budget defecit, he said tax hikes are just wrong, whereas the federal government needs to be slashed. So he’s saying conservative things even though he should be chasing the road kill that’s lying in the middle of the road.
There’s ignorance on display. A recession is 2 straight months of negative growth. Last month revised numbers had the economy growing at a 4.4% rate, iirc. Even before the revision it was growing...I think at 1.9%.
Each knows that the public has been told for months that there’s a recession even though there isn’t one. Now they both have to act like there is one or the media will make fun of them and the people will join in.
If a recession is now “how the media feels,” then everything we’re told is a suspect.
And it is.
Last quarter’s 3.3% was based on two things:
1. Exports, which were up very strongly.
2. A GDP deflator that does not track the CPI.
Take out those two issues and you’ll see that you’re down to a couple tenths of a percent GDP growth.
The two things that stood out for me in the GDP report were:
1. The collapse of import spending.
2. An astonishing increase in savings.
We might disagree on the particulars of the economy, but if you crack open the internals of that 3.3% headline number, you will see that it is not a great report.
A recession is commonly thought of as 2 back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth, but in fact the NBER’s model is more complicated than that:
From the NBER’s FAQ:
“Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER’s recession dating procedure?
A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. The most recent recession in our chronology was in 2001. According to data as of July 2008, the 2001 recession involved declines in the first and third quarters of 2001 but not in two consecutive quarters. Our procedure differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we consider the depth as well as the duration of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in economic activity.” Second, we use a broader array of indicators than just real GDP. One reason for this is that the GDP data are subject to considerable revision. Third, we use monthly indicators to arrive at a monthly chronology.”
http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html
LLS
Yup.... and Obama just showed that he’s totally unprepared to answer even Kroft’s “friendly” and “supportive” questions without a teleprompter at hand.... the man is a complete disaster when left on his own....
I think McCain answered it well.
He knows the definition of recession. However, he also knows that people “think” we’re in one and that we do have legitimate economic issues to deal with, and to say simply “we’re not in a recession” makes him seem “out of touch” to fuzzy indy and moderate voters.
I think he answered it well.
He should explain to people what a recession is, even if he is going to complain about the economic situation. “I know people are hurting, but the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth and we haven’t had that...” That is simply a fact, and people should be made to understand about it. I don’t feel that good about McCain simply adopting the liberal media’s template and premises without comment, just as I don’t like his ranting against Wall Street greed when the current crisis is based on the sub prime mortgage problem which stems from Democrat policy that the Bush administration and the Republicans tried to change in 2003 and 2005.
Yes, but not to those that don’t know the definition.
By saying it’s not technically one but that doesn’t matter to most people, he hit the nail on the head.
I think it’s still important to explain to people the definition of a recession. It’s not too difficult, and it will teach people something and counter the liberal media propaganda.
While McCain is explaining what a recession is over and over who exactly will be running for POTUS from our side?
I’m not arguing with your diagnosis. I’m arguing with the practicality of it (there is none in a presidential campaign).
It takes one sentence to explain what a recession is. It is not a difficult concept. And it would be helpful for people to learn this, so I don’t see the problem if he needs to repeat it a few times.
No, it’s NOT. That is not the job of a presidential nominee. If you want Obama to win though, by all means, run around the campaign trail explaining we’re not in a recession and here’s the definition of it. It rings of political tone deafism - the kind that seperates POTUS candidates from actual POTUSes.
Yes, except that one sentence is exactly the kind of albatross Obama would LOVE to hang around our necks. And the media will be fully complicit in carrying out a pseudo-populist economic endrun around John McCain to the goal line for Obama. McCain would get slaughtered. It would be his “Poland his not dominated by the Soviets” moment.
We are trying to WIN. November 5th is the right day to start explaining such things to the American people.
“How’d you like his comment about firing Chris Cox and replacing him with Andrew Cuomo ? I nearly shot my dinner out my nose. “
You gotta admit McCain never fails to surprise! I did like the idea about getting the political office out of the White House. He says he’ll put them in the GOP office. Great idea.
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