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Math Model Shows McCain Ahead In Electoral Votes
Science Daily ^ | 9/17/2008 | INFORMS

Posted on 09/21/2008 5:46:42 AM PDT by careyb

ScienceDaily (Sep. 17, 2008) — A new approach to determining which candidate will win the most electoral votes in the U.S. Presidential race factors in lessons learned from the 2004 election and uses sophisticated math modeling. The research will be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS®).

As of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.

Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/, a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election.

(Excerpt) Read more at sciencedaily.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elctionpresident; election; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; polls
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Unfortunately, the study doesn't take into account Democratic vote fraud.
1 posted on 09/21/2008 5:46:43 AM PDT by careyb
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To: careyb
Great, we're going to apply the same science to forecasting the election that we use to forecast the weather, and globull warming.
2 posted on 09/21/2008 5:49:58 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: careyb

I hate math


3 posted on 09/21/2008 5:52:42 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: careyb

I will not be surprised if this guy turns out to be correct. The chickens are coming home to roost, let us see how many are there on election day.


4 posted on 09/21/2008 5:53:25 AM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "Give me liberty or give me a government check!")
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To: careyb

Knowing the lies coming from the lefties, I expect nothing but their exclamations that Obama is winning all over the Country but, as in New Mexico printing 2 million ballots with a population of 1 million, one should suspect fraud and deal with it as quickly as possible and have proper inspections of those DemocRATs running the machines.


5 posted on 09/21/2008 5:54:56 AM PDT by Rockiette (Democrats are not intelligent)
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To: careyb
Clear as, ummmm, Thomas Bayes' Theorem?


6 posted on 09/21/2008 5:58:18 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: The_Victor

Operations Research is not the same as Climate Studies. OR tends to be more ‘reality’ based.


7 posted on 09/21/2008 5:58:32 AM PDT by DugwayDuke (What's more important? Your principles or supporting the troops? Vote McCain!)
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To: Sooth2222

Not likely. :>)


8 posted on 09/21/2008 6:02:50 AM PDT by Panzerlied ("We shall never surrender!")
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To: careyb

You’re right, ‘rat vote fraud is hugh and series.

This time around, though, I hope the anti-Hussein chorus reaches into every nook and cranny of America, and his Socialist agenda for America is rejected loud and clear.


9 posted on 09/21/2008 6:02:58 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (Just say NObama!)
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To: careyb

“Unfortunately, the study doesn’t take into account Democratic vote fraud.”

An important factor


10 posted on 09/21/2008 6:03:02 AM PDT by nuconvert (Obama - Preferred by 4 out of 5 Dictators & Terrorists// Rove>Biden is a Big,Blowhard Dufus)
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To: DugwayDuke
Operations Research is not the same as Climate Studies. OR tends to be more ‘reality’ based.

The prediction may be right, but a computer model to predict the future is still just another crystal ball.

11 posted on 09/21/2008 6:07:05 AM PDT by The_Victor (If all I want is a warm feeling, I should just wet my pants.)
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To: careyb

Vote fraud is the “finagle factor” that has to be put into all engineering equations to make the numbers come out with and sort of match the real world. Excluding this “finagle factor” puts this whole equation up in the ideal realm.

Wonderful to behold, and we should all be that good, but deucedly hard to achieve.


12 posted on 09/21/2008 6:09:27 AM PDT by alloysteel (Just because you are a target, does not mean you have to be a victim.)
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To: nuconvert
I have a bad feeling that this election outcome will be far worse than 2000. Even if McCain gets the EV as well as the popular vote, the results will be challenged by the dems. Obama and his evil empire will do anything to undermine the outcome and claim victory no matter if it means anarchy. The dems are in control of Congress and SCOTUS is razor edge on the side of the Constitution. If the election isn't a landslide for McCain, expect the events of 2000 to be nothing compared to 2008.
13 posted on 09/21/2008 6:14:53 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Sarah Palin reminds me of the story about David and Goliath)
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To: careyb
As of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain...

After the events of last week it makes me wonder why anyone thinks that the Electoral College will be used to decide the POTUS election this year? After all, the Constitution now lies in tiny pieces on the floor of the Federal Archives.... I also wonder what would make someone want to inherit charge of the fiscal mess Jorge and Congress are leaving behind?

14 posted on 09/21/2008 6:18:50 AM PDT by Thermalseeker (Silence is not always a Sign of Wisdom, but Babbling is ever a Mark of Folly. - B. Franklin)
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To: Puppage
I hate math

There are only three kinds of people in the world, those who hate math and those who don't.

15 posted on 09/21/2008 6:23:36 AM PDT by Graybeard58 (Palin/McCain '08.)
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To: Graybeard58
There are only three kinds of people in the world, those who hate math and those who don't.

LOL

16 posted on 09/21/2008 6:27:32 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: careyb

“Unfortunately, the study doesn’t take into account Democratic vote fraud.”

Oh look, three more full ballot boxes in the trunk of my car ... the Chicago way.


17 posted on 09/21/2008 6:27:50 AM PDT by mgc1122
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To: Maelstorm; careyb

The chickens are coming home to roost, let us see how many are there on election day.

Would be great to see more ads of Rev. Wright with that statement about the Chickens coming home to roost!! AND other rants with the picture of Obama’s arm around him....Let’s remind America of what is at stake and what kind of “friends” that would be walking in our WH!!!


18 posted on 09/21/2008 6:30:07 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK (McCain/Palin...2 pit bulls, one with lipstick! Pigs will fly with lipstick Nov. 4th)
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To: careyb
Calypso Louie Farrakhan math will determine the outcome of the November election.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Leni

19 posted on 09/21/2008 6:31:15 AM PDT by MinuteGal (Obama's Moose is Cooked!)
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To: nuconvert; careyb

Absolutely. Without Democrat vote fraud Bush would have won Wisconsin in both 2000 and 2004. We can thank
Obama-like “community organizers” from ACORN and other Democrat groups for that crime. Much of the contentiousness of the 2000 Florida recounts would have been diminished—or would not even have happened—if Wisconsin had been in Bush’s column, as it rightly should have been.


20 posted on 09/21/2008 6:33:12 AM PDT by Combat_Liberalism
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