Posted on 09/18/2008 7:14:55 AM PDT by drzz
McCain/Palin 274 Obama/Biden 243
bmflr
I’m not sure why so many seem to think New Mexico is not winnable for McCain. I think it is very winnable. The key to New Mexico for Republican Presidential candidates is to get out the vote statewide. Most in the rural areas voted for Bush, and it takes all the rural and small town votes to override the crazy liberals in Santa Fe and parts of Albuquerque. A large turnout for Republicans has worked here in the past.
I honestly cannot see OH or FL going with Obama either. MI too, seems to be for McCain.
McCain does very well at these town hall meetings. Obama does poorly at them, in fact he does poorly at any of them as Hillary was able to whip saw him pretty well.
Not to rain on anyones parade, but Indiana is shown as leaning McCain which I think may be correct.
Indiana is traditionally SOLID red for Presidential elections.
Not this time around: I don’t see or sense much support for McCain here.
I invite anyone here to tell me why I am wrong.
Since the site also said most of these state polls were taken before this week, the reaction to this week’s economic news would not be factored in. I wish McCain would get out front and make the argument that both Bush and he called for increased scrutiny of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2003 and 2005, respectively, but it was blocked by the Dems. He needs to get that out there.
The problem in NM is that because of the small population, polls tend to be significantly more accurate samples.
Right now, it looks like NM is leaning Obama. It is hard to see how to turn the left-leaning state red for another election without a national trend.
It is not unwinnable for McCain, but there’s a reason he’s not doing as much in NM as elsewhere. I actually think he has a better shot at NH now than NM. NV looks safer.
This is about the most accurate map I have seen. A bit hard to buy that Iowa is solidly Obama, but he seems popular there for some reason. PA is the state that if McCain can pick up, I think it seals the election.
Oh, it's certainly winnable, especially considering his home state is right next door. And NM was very close the past two elections, splitting for Gore (barely, thanks to a snowstorm) and then Bush. I think that right now at least the polls are leaning a bit toward The Inexperienced One.
I hope it holds, but wait a few days for the Obama manufactured rebound to hit the state polls.”
A lot of us have that precise concern. Just as the state polls were slow to move up with national post-convention, they are going to be slow to move down (or that is the fear).
NM was decided in the past two elections by .7% and .1%. There are four public polls on RCP for NM, including this one. Two show very large Obama leads, two show small McCain leads (small leads being more consistent with the state's voting patterns). But given the former two, Obama's RCP average is nearly 4 points. Just not realistic in my book.
And McCain/Palin visited NM right after the convention, so it's obvious the campaign thinks it's a close race.
No offense intended for you, but I avoid that site. I used to go there often, then noticed that day-after-day the “commentary” was horribly one-sided against McCain and for 0bama.
now, I go to Intrade, or even 538
They’re winning, that’s what is going on.
Maybe.
In the event of a tie the Senators can vote for who ever they want...There could be votes for Hillary, Biden, McCain, Kerry, Gore or even {gasp} Sarah Palin.
There is a reason Fauxbama has refused to appear at any town hall meetings with McCain....
We need to make sure that anyone who’s undecided or weakly leaning Fauxbama sees the following:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omHUsRTYFAU
It is unfathomable that any reasonable person can be contemplating putting this guy in the White House.
RE: “Obama should not be this close.”
Something to think about on 11/4: two words — “Bradley factor”
Because McCain continues to lead there. He is consistantly 4 to 6 points ahead. Indiana isn’t really in play.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.