Posted on 09/18/2008 7:14:55 AM PDT by drzz
McCain/Palin 274 Obama/Biden 243
Saw an article a week or so ago that The One has opened an office in Omaha with the specific intent of trying to capture one or two of Nebraska's EVs.
Maine CD-2 is apparently close, but I'd like to see a commissioned poll if I had my way.....
Can I see that article? I had heard that Obama was giving up there, and relying on just volunteers in the hopes of a drastic upset.
The beauty of this is that if some fine conservatives wanted to go help out in PA, they could go to Bill Russell's district (PA-12) or Lou Barletta's district (PA-11), thereby helping McCain/Palin win PA and also helping the Pubbies steal a Congressional seat or two.
I think Palin will get McCain over the 300 hump.
I saw your post up above. It could have been a dated article. I’ll try to find it. Don’t move!!! :-)
On the ground here in PA, I have to say Fauxbama will not win this state. WI definately is in play. The rust belt is the battleground of this election, let no one tell you otherwise.
Short of something drastically shifting the dynamic, between now and NOV 4.
PA, MI, WI and possibly MN (if it is truly as close as some recent polls have claimed there), any of those states go McCain the race is over.
I’ve been telling people that PA would not go BLUE this time, I didn’t think Hillary could have won it, I know Fauxbama can’t win PA.
Fauxbama is NOT winning PA on the ground, let no one tell you otherwise, he’s in HUGE trouble here, far more than the “tied” polling is indicating. He is not connected at all with the blue dogs and the moderates. His refusal and down right vehement fight against the Born Alive Protection Act back in IL alienates huge amoungs of folks. His rebuke of Hillary as VP turned the PUMA’s against him.
PA was only 130k votes for Kerry, and that was when the Dems through everything and the kitchen sink in for Kerry here... That’s not happening here this time. On the ground Fauxbama is not seeing remotely the support he needs to win.
Rendell is not behind him, he’s a Hillary guy and will not mobilize the state machine beyond token efforts for show for Fauxbama. The Union leadership is trying to get the rank and file to drink the kool aid for this schlub, but the rank and file aren’t drinking and even the leaders don’t believe the snake oil they are selling. This state went to Hillary by 9 points late in the primaries, and thats with just the loyal dems voting.
PA has been trending more and more red every election, for quite a while. A trend that has been mostly ignored by the pundents. Now had Hillary or another Dem won, PA could have seen a halting or even a push back on this trend because of the high negatives the republicans as a brand have had this time around. Instead they put up the most incompetent, ill prepared, and unqualified yutz EVER to be a nominee. So, PA will go McCain on NOV 4, it won’t be a blowout (though I suspect it will be larger than state polling is showing) but it will be McCain.
Thanks for the link.
Hmmm.....a volunteer office. Maybe that’s what I had read.
I think it’s moot, though, as there are no scenarios where one EV helps Obama - all of the 269-269 models are losers for McCain anyway because of the House. Whereas one EV from ME CD-2 would give McCain the necessary 270 in those few scenarios.
The only POSSIBLE way it hurts is if McCain gets ME CD-2 to put him to 270, then loses NE CD-2. That scenario is just too far-fetched for me to buy into.
Plus, I just don’t see a Liberal Demcrat winning NE CD-2. Maybe, possibly, a Moderate Presidential candidate, but not Obama. I think that if Obama wins NE CD-2, it will be indicative of a national trend that meant he didn’t need it anyway.
McCain, on the other hand, could benefit much from ME CD-2 in four different scenarios involving NH, NV, and/or NM.
“On the ground here in PA, I have to say Fauxbama will not win this state.”
I’m beginning to believe you may be right. I have seen a few BHO signs around here (flyover country here in Indiana County) for a long time, but precious few have popped up since then. On the other hand, McCain signs are starting to pop up and I’m seeing more and more bumper stickers. Of course, Indiana County tends to go red anyway.
Barring a drastic electoral shift before the election, I agree. Obama's running out of options. He's nearly at the Gore map in 2000. Al Gore needed to draw an inside straight (win PA, MI and FL) to win the White House. He almost did it.
This race darned sure isn't over yet. But Obama and his goons aren't nearly so cocky anymore. [grin]
“On the ground here in PA, I have to say Fauxbama will not win this state.”
I’m beginning to believe you may be right. I have seen a few BHO signs around here (flyover country here in Indiana County) for a long time, but precious few have popped up since then. On the other hand, McCain signs are starting to pop up and I’m seeing more and more bumper stickers. Of course, Indiana County tends to go red anyway.
Biggest nightmare:
Look closely at the map...
What happens if Obama wins PA and steals Nevada?
Suddenly it’s 269 for each. So, who wins?
PA is more than a toss up, PA is McCain, trust me on this.
Fauxbama has ZERO support in PA. The Machine is not behind him, the rank and file are not behind him.
I know the polling numbers show it close, and I don’t expect a complete blowout, but this state will not go for Fauxbama this year, unless something fundamentally shifts in this race between now and Nov 4.
Obama wins a tie with a Dem House. But what if McCain steals WI and/or PA? What if he wins back NH? I think any of those three are as much or more likely than the Obamessiah winning NV.
Yep, by this time in the race, you would be seeing democratic signs on ever 3rd or 4th house in the blue collar neighborhoods.. and they aren’t there... He’s doesn’t have the blue dogs or moderate dems at all.
Ties are tossed to the House (VP) and Senate (Pres) inaugurated in Jan. At this point a tie = an Obama win.
Bradley Effect and Prop 8.
Not sure he can take Cali, but it’s going to be a lot closer than people think.
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