McCain Has the Advantage Over Obama in Post-Convention Polls (Barone)

US News and World Report ^ | 9/16/08 | Michael Barone

[Dawnsblood]

The post-convention national polls mostly show John McCain with a small lead over Barack Obama. But what's been happening in the states? I've been looking at the post-convention state polls at realclearpolitics.com, pollster.com, and fivethirtyeight.com and find some significant differences from pre-convention polls. They tend to suggest that the battlefield is shifting, with more states within McCain's reach and fewer within Obama's.

Some caution is in order: We're talking about only one or two polls in some states but as many as eight in ultracritical Ohio. I haven't included the Zogby Internet polls in my analysis. I've rounded off the averages in each state to full percentages (and rounded 0.5s downwards for both candidates), and I'm reporting the difference between the McCain percentage and Obama percentage. Here's my analysis:

The big industrial states. Michigan and Pennsylvania are Obama +2, Ohio is McCain +3. In each case, McCain is 1 point better than Bush's final percentage against Kerry in each state. An old rule of American politics is that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. Michigan, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania are in economic distress. But they haven't moved toward the Democratic nominee, as compared with 2004. The old rule isn't operating. Here's another possible rule. When voters see that tax increases aren't producing a better economy, they don't move toward a Democratic nominee who is proposing higher taxes, even though he says they'll hit only the rich. In Michigan, the Democrats (with a few turncoat Republicans) raised taxes in 2007; in Ohio, the Republicans (with some Democratic support) raised taxes before 2006. Those tax increases haven't helped those states' economies, not so as you'd notice, though they've helped members of public employees unions.

[BobS]

"Michael Barone says McCain-Palin has the advantage in states with a total of 342 electoral votes."

It Makes total sense to me. Man, are those Rats stupid! Dumping on Sarah like they are, are making women mad. And other men don't stand around watching a man treating a decent woman like crap. I hope they keep it up!

And Obama needs to raise $9M in Malibu tonight? That's because he can't tell his kooks to shut up. And his campain uses what those kooks put on the net.

[mware]

Barone is a walkin',talkin' encyclopedia. That man knows his stuff.

I was waiting in line for him to sign a copy of one of his books several years ago.

I happen to be about 10th in line. I noticed that he asked every person in line what state and county they were from. He than regaled them with the breakdown of how their county had voted in the 2004 election>

I was ashamed to tell him the truth, but admitted I was from NJ (Atlantic County). He grinned at me and said, "You folks have a lot of work to do."

[mware]

If Mc wins PA, it is going to be an early night.

[CatOwner]

Thanks for the response (and for not lecturing me). I read the article, and he had a lot of interesting things to say.

He said that McCain was competitive or leading in states with 342 EVs. He also said that Obama was competitive or leading in states with 338 EVs. Sounds like a toss-up to me.

So, to read a post that says "Michael Barone says McCain-Palin has the advantage in states with a total of 342 electoral votes" is overstating the truth of the article. It may also be that my interpretation of the words "competitive" and "advantage" are different than others here.

[CatOwner]

If Mc wins PA, it is going to be an early night. Having McCain take PA opens up a lot of avenues for McCain to achieve an Electoral victory. Right now, there aren't many options (for either candidate).

[mware]

agreed if Mc takes PA that is 23 points that Obama has to find somewhere else.

[neverdem]

thanks, bfl