Can Zimmer Steal Lautenberg's Senate Seat for the GOP?

Various ^ | 9/16/08 | impeachedrapist

[impeachedrapist]

New Jersey is now, according to recent polls, tantalizingly close in the Presidential race. While I do not suggest McCain/Palin expend resources for a NJ victory, this suddenly competitive state could cause more headaches for rejected (by Obama) Harry Reid.

Pulled from the Web:

In [a] poll, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Lautenberg was leading Zimmer by 45 percent to 28 percent. The poll of 589 registered voters was conducted between June 17 and 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Here

25 Jul 08:
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday found Lautenberg leading Dick Zimmer by 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters.
Here

12 Aug 08, Quinnipiac:
Democratic incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 48 - 41 percent among likely New Jersey voters, a more select group than registered voters surveyed in previous polls.

19 Aug 08:
Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 50%-32% lead over Republican Dick Zimmer in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a Zogby International poll released today.
Here

This was just a quick search and there are probably other polls out there. Please post 'em if you've got 'em. Regardless, these are NOT good numbers for an incumbent senator. Even the best of those polls only shows Lautenberg at 50%. If McCain/Palin simply make an appearance with Zimmer, it could boost his fundraising and name recognition substantially and perhaps make this one a nailbiter. At least one poll mentioned that Zimmer, despite serving as a NJ Congressional rep, still suffered (when the poll was conducted) from rather poor name recognition.

Others laughed at me (in a kind way) last week for suggesting Lautenberg could lose. That's fine. Just going on polls, I'd say Zimmer's got a shot at stealing a seat.

Then, after digging through FEC data from June 30th of this year, it appears at that time Lautenberg had $1.3 million in cash on hand, but $3 million in debt. Zimmer had $411K on hand, but only $277K in debt. So Zimmer actually appears to be in better shape as of the most recent FEC data.

Lautenberg has raised $6.2 million total, but spent every penny. And he still can't break 50% in the polls?!? If this race isn't on the GOP's radar screen, it should be.

[LS]

Well, not promising. 36% and 39% in a Dem state is not a good position to be in. That’s too much ground to make up from people who are not his friends.

[impeachedrapist]

36% and 39% in a Dem state is not a good position to be in.

Neither is 46-48% as a Dem incumbent. That's the key here. Zimmer's an unknown. His numbers can be moved much easier than Lautenberg's.

As a reminder, New Jersey is the state that gave us this classic governor's race:

For incumbents, the magic number in polling is supposedly 50 percent - the idea being that undecided voters overwhelmingly break for the challenger on Election Day.

One classic case study of this phenomenon was in New Jersey in 1993, when Jim Florio led Christie Whitman in poll after poll - sometimes by double digits - from June all the way until November. But he never surpassed 49 percent - which is exactly what he ended up with on Election Day

http://www.observer.com/term/26715

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Neither is 46-48% as a Dem incumbent. That's the key here. Zimmer's an unknown. His numbers can be moved much easier than Lautenberg's."

With 6 opponents, I'd rather have the 46-48% than 39%. Remember, again, Laut only needs a plurality to win. He doesn't magically go to a runoff if he gets below 50%.

Re: Florio

I didn't expect Florio to win reelection, positive numbers aside. He had a massive, ghastly massive backlash that led to gargantuan Republican legislative majorities in the '91 midterms. Whitman gave Bill Bradley a fright in '90, too, when he almost got dragged down with the hugely unpopular Flim Flam Florio. In '93, the good news was that Whitman won... and the bad news was that Whitman won (and promptly squandered all of the goodwill in the state entrusting the GOP with huge majorities). All of it totally gone.

Going back to the Senate race again, too many of our statewide candidacies in NJ are a lot like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. The media and the Dems play the role of Lucy, making us believe -- THIS TIME -- we're gonna kick the ball, we're gonna win -- only to have the ball yanked away at the last moment and are left laying in the dirt.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think the race is in play. The big task is to get Zimmer’s name I.D. up, which will cost a lot of money.

[Maelstorm]

Thanks.

[Maelstorm]

Keep the faith. I’m not a big fan of Zimmer but we need to keep the Senate close at all cost. We CAN NOT afford for the left to win a veto proof Congress people on the ground need to wake the hell up. Here in Virginia damn liberal Mark Warner is still pulling a significant number of otherwise loyal GOPers. What in the hell is wrong with Republicans in my state? It is like they’ve been brainwashed. I’m getting out again this weekend. Gilmore had a good debate with Warner and the press is being more even handed. Gilmore more needs to show movement and close the gap here in Virginia. If Warner is riding high come election day McCain may very well lose Virginia.

[Impy]

Does Zimmer have any money? Is he on TV? That’s the way to win it, especially in NJ, Corzine proved that.

[impeachedrapist]

Read the thread

[impeachedrapist]

I’m not worried about McCain losing Virginia. I anticipate Gilmore will close the gap with Warner, but there are just so many crossover votes I can’t realistically see how the Pubbies hold this seat. I applaud and thank you for all your hard work!

[impeachedrapist]

Bump

[impeachedrapist]

Bump