Posted on 09/15/2008 1:29:33 AM PDT by markomalley
There is no question that John McCain’s pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has changed the dynamic of the 2008 Presidential campaign, moved the current wave of polling to the GOP’s favor, and altered the terrain the rest of the election will likely be fought on.
The Obama campaign’s ability to recognize the shifting ground, understand that it is real, and adjust accordingly will determine the outcome. And the outcome, for the first time, is in doubt.
The Obama campaign went into the Democratic National Convention believing that the race would be fought out on Washington experience and “more of the same” vs. change. This was essentially the same frame of the race the Obama camp had sustained for the first 16 months or so of the nominating fight with New York Senator Hillary Clinton. It worked in the primaries until the Clinton campaign shifted from “35 years of experience” to a much more “woman for change” oriented message in the later stages of the fight and nearly came back to win the nomination.
But the McCain campaign learned something from watching the Democratic primary fight. Throughout the 2008 primary season no matter how many polls said that Hillary Clinton had more experience to be President, no matter how wide her margin over Obama on “ready to be President on day one” it did not matter. Obama and his message of change won.
The Clinton campaign kept seeing in their polling and research that Hillary’s experience trumped change and could not understand why she was losing the nomination with her substantial experience advantage.
The hunger for change was that powerful. The hunger for a different kind of post-partisan politics that would shake up Washington was overpowering “experience” and “more of the same.”
Now it seems so obvious. It is amazing that so few (including the Obama campaign) saw it coming.
John McCain and his team had to make a decision. Run as the more experienced ticket, and run smack into Barack Obama’s trap of change vs. more of the same just as Clinton had. Or pick Sarah Palin and run as the original mavericks that really will shake up Washington.
If you are an advisor to McCain, faced with that choice, you urge McCain to pick Palin.
But now it’s the Obama campaign's turn to learn the lesson of the Clinton campaign. The Obama campaign looks at all its polling data and research and in a race between change and four more years of George Bush, change wins big. So it keeps trying to frame the race as four more years of George Bush and more of the same vs. change and cannot understand why it isn’t pulling away.
It’s not just Palin.
The brilliance of the McCain strategy and messaging is that it includes a trap for Obama. To push back on the McCain claim of “country first” and “the original mavericks who will shake up Washington,” the Obama campaign’s attack of “four more years of George Bush” becomes a problem. In a country that yearns for post-partisan change the Obama campaign risks sounding too partisan and like more of the same.
It would not surprise me if in one of the debates Obama or Biden uses the “you voted with George Bush and supported him 93% of the time,” and it’s John McCain that retorts “that’s the kind of partisan attack the American people are sick of….”.
What worked for Obama is now working for McCain. The important lesson for the Obama campaign is that the Clinton campaign kept looking at its research, kept stressing experience and did not adjust until it was too late. The McCain campaign has not only adjusted to the Obama message, they have changed the terrain.
Now the Obama campaign and its allies need to understand that in arguing that John McCain represents a third term of George Bush and the GOP agenda it is the Obama campaign that risks sounding partisan in a country that yearns for the post-partisanship of “country first” and “shaking things up in Washington.”
One last point: Hamilton Jordan, who passed away recently at the age of 63, was among a brilliant group of Democrats who plotted the strategy behind Jimmy Carter’s campaign for the White House. Carter was the only true insurgent candidate on the Democratic side to make it to the Presidency in the modern era.
Carter was running against Gerald Ford in 1976. The Watergate babies, a large group of reform minded Democrats, had been swept into office in the change election of 1974. Carter who ran as an outsider throughout the primaries looked like he would beat President Ford, who had pardoned Nixon and was a joke machine for “Saturday Night Live,” going away. But Carter won the campaign with just 50.1% of the vote to Ford’s 48%.
I remember Hamilton Jordan saying something I will never forget. He said the mistake that had cost Carter his big lead, and nearly cost him the election was that after Carter won the nomination the campaign started to listen too much to Washington Democrats and lost much of its outsider thinking that made it different.
The Obama campaign needs to get back to the basics that got it here. Stop listening to the Democrats who are wringing their hands and fighting the last war.
Clinton adjusted too late. McCain may have adjusted in the nick of time. Will Obama’s campaign make the right adjustment now?
Get back to being an outsider. And get there fast.
McCain is the one running against Washington now. Obama can't just run against Bush. That’s my take.
Obama isn't about change--he's about finally delivering on the Ultimate Democrat Promise to the jigsaw puzzle of victim groups which now make up the Democrat vote. That promise, of course, is that the government will pay for everything, do everything for you, and it's only that handful of Mean Rich White Guys who will have to feel any pinch.
When you boil the two sides down to the messages that appeal to their cores, the Republicans are saying "We'll get government to leave you alone" and the Democrats are saying "We'll get government to leave YOU alone but it will act like a thug with a switchblade to that guy over there who has everything which you SHOULD have."
Obama is trapped by his very existence as a cliched Angry Democrat. He can't change the message or the game or anything else because to do so he'd have to uproot his entire campaign up until now.
a brilliant group of Democrats who plotted the strategy behind Jimmy Carter’s campaign for the White House. Carter was the only true insurgent candidate on the Democratic side to make it to the Presidency in the modern era.
I want to comment on this, but I'm still astonished that someone could write such a paragraph about Carter's presidency. How the Democrats almost blew it when they had all the cards going into that election--because they were so BRILLIANT?
Sorry to inflame the Hillary vote visiting here, however the truth is, Hillary lost due mostly to her personality. It's not that she wasn't more experienced than Obama, it was that Obama appealed more to his base and motivated the type of ground roots activity and motivated turnout that wins elections. Of course that includes voter fraud and voter intimidation as well.
Obama had the "cult of personality" in his favor. Even I liked him as an empty suit at the beginning. That's changed as I've gotten to understand him better. Hillary was out there for years. She motivated the right to stand against her with mouth-frothing fervor. She compelled two groups of the left to support her; women and left leaning blue collar voters. It wasn't enough against Obama's machine.
Now Governor Palin comes along and with her personal story is able to reach out to even more of America. And while she may be an unknown, as people get to know her, they like her even more. Even Hillary would have a tough time appealing to the combination of Governor Palin and her union member blue collar husband on the campaign trail. There's a charm there that reaches well into some aspect the majority of voters out there.
I don't even believe a late October surprise would result in a win for Hillary, either. After the devastating split and inevitable rioting amongst the democrats, the McCain/Palin ticket would still retain enough of the vote to win. All the addition of Hillary would do would be to consolidate the anti-Hillary vote that's become somewhat quiet since Obozo stole the nomination.
Anyway, that's me just yapping away... cheers!
How can you get back to being an outsider, when you have chosen the consummate insider as your running mate. BRANDED.
I get a laugh out of everyone saying how much experience Hillary supposedly has. A one term Senator who beat out Giuliani. Her claim to fame - beating Giuliani. Other than that, since when does being wife to a President, previously Governor, count as experience?
Anyway, how can he be an outsider when his career was built by insiders. By default, he’s an insider.
She didn’t beat Giuliani as he dropped out early because of his coming caner treatments. She beat Rick Lazio only because he invaded her space at a debate. So she won because the mean sexist man tried to hand the little defenceless woman a little piece of paper within public view.
There are two things at work here, 1. “Change” is desired, to many folks DC simply does not work. 2. Not too much “change” for all of the roiling about it, people are not that willing to “change” they want the appearance more then the reality.
Basically, Obama’s Socialism “lite” goes to far, the more he touts it, the less he will be supported, Bill Clinton was a genius at “change change change” when nothing really changed at all.
Clinton won 2 elections on that premise, Granny keeps her Social Security, Middle america “showed them”.
I stand corrected.
CBS News consultant Joe Trippi says Palin has changed the dynamics of the race and that Obama needs to get back to being an outsider -- fast:And unfortunately, McCain gave 0bama the perfect opportunity to do just that when he said, “It's easy for me to go to Washington and, frankly, be somewhat divorced from the day-to-day challenges people have.”
McCain DC experience vs. Palin Gov./ working Mom life.
McCain foreign policy vs. Palin domestic policy.
McCain CIC vs. Palin Alaska National Guard CIC.
Both together working to “change” and “shake up Washington.” Both understanding that to lead in the world you have to lead in your own house first.
The voters in the middle see the fraud that is Obama. They already know his socialist/partisan policy is not what they want for their children. They are the elite and no matter how hard they try to present themselves as humble(d) to the American voter it simply doesn't work.
McCain is the network piece to DC, the Palin family with all its challenges and flaws connects to middle America. The connection is real. Middle America acknowledges that connection and Sarah may be more a Mr. Smith goes to Washington, but she represents us.
I live in Dennis Kucinch country. And no matter how much our elected officials are supposed to represent us after the elections, Dennis doesn't represent me. There is a disaffected Republican base with no representation. There are democrats who feel the same way.
All around the country we write, we call, we see the emails back telling us they can't help us because we're not in their district. Whole blocks in this country see Washington DC as not representing them and out of touch with the American people. Partisan.
So, McCain has truthfully related he may be out of touch with some in middle America. So he added to his ticket what he felt would strengthen his weakness. Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, reformer, justice seeker, and real Mom. Middle America and Americana.
also the little fact that NY is as blue as they come
But how does McCain answer this major gaffe?
That’s my concern.
Once 0bama couples the photo from the Atlantic with McCain looking like an eeeeeevil corporatist with this quote, McCain is going to have to spend all his time on defense, countering this redefinition that his ineptitude on both counts has handed his opponent.
Why did McCain’s campaign ever agree to do an interview and photoshoot with the Atlantic? Do they not read?
McCain got what he deserved on that one, complete with the cover headline “Why War Is His Answer.”
The Atlantic has it out for him. His campaign should have known better. They’ve allowed control over McCain’s image to get out of their hands. They’ve broken the first rule of politics.
I just want to know how McCain is going to take back control and minimize the damage.
“I just don’t know what they can do to undo this one.”
her name is Sarah Palin. and Obama picked Biden.
if Obama wants to take the low class route with McCain...well we’ve already seen much worse against Palin.
Is Palin enough?
At some point, the focus will return to 0bama vs. McCain, and that is when 0bama will trot out McCain’s comment about being divorced from people’s challenges in Washington.
I see this as a very big deal. I think it is like an atom bomb McCain detonated against himself and we just haven’t felt the blast yet. Am I wrong? I would really like to be convinced that I am.
The problem is that Bill Clinton told 0bama he’s wrong to run on McCain being more of the same, that instead he needs to run against McCain being “out of touch” just as Clinton did against Bush Sr. in ‘92. And McCain handed 0bama the quote of a lifetime that suddenly makes 0bama’s case for him. When 0bama says McCain is out of touch with the challenges of regular people, McCain’s own words will make it ring true.
I don’t think 0bama running with that is taking the low road, honestly. I think it’s just tough politics. McCain said it himself, and there is no way for him to wiggle out of it. 0bama wouldn’t even have to really take him out of context.
The only thing that may help McCain survive is the reservoir of trust he’s built up, and his image as a true American war hero. Perhaps people like McCain enough to shrug it off and say “I know what he was trying to say”, but that is a huge gamble, and McCain’s campaign is left in the compromising position of the preservation of his image depending on the kindness of strangers.
I’m not so worried about Senator Arugula, who was brought up in Hawaii, Indonesia and Harvard, suddenly turning into the “man of the people.”
McCain has given townhall meetings across the country for quite some time now and there will be another one in MI on the 17th.
We’re not talking about 0bama though.
This is about how much ammunition McCain has supplied the opposition against himself with one stupid, stupid comment.
What I’m concerned about is how much damage has McCain done to himself? He’s been taking gradual steps forward now for some time, and I just wonder how far back this knocks him.
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