Posted on 09/14/2008 11:54:00 AM PDT by ricks_place
Polls in 11 battleground states show Obama retains narrow lead as 78 Electoral College votes still a toss-up
UTICA, New YorkAn Electoral College tidal wave has followed the surge of interest in the rejuvenated Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, nearly erasing a once-daunting Democratic advantage and creating a race for the White House that is nearly dead-level even.
The latest Zogby Interactive polling in 11 key battleground states, and a further analysis of polling in other states, has resulted in the recalibration of the Zogby Electoral College Map, available at www.zogby.com.
In this latest Zogby calculation, Obama/Biden lead the race with a projected 234 Electoral College votes in 18 states and the District of Columbia, compared with 226 votes from 25 states for the McCain/Palin ticket. Another 78 Electoral College votes from seven states remain up for grabs, the latest Zogby analysis shows.
In this latest adjustment of the Zogby map, Obama has lost 26 Electoral College votes from two statesPennsylvania and New Mexico both of which were moved from the Obama column into the toss-up column.
Meanwhile, McCain has gained enough ground to haveat least for nowcaptured a definitive lead in seven new states: Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, South and North Dakota. McCains gains total 54 Electoral College votes. Based on a Zogby analysis of other credible polling and demographic trends, the Zogby map is also moving four other states Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, and North Dakota from toss-ups into the McCain column.
All of McCains gains come from moving toss-up states into his columnno states moved directly from Obama to McCain.
(Excerpt) Read more at zogby.com ...
HorseraceColorado |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
47.5% |
Obama |
45.5% |
Not Sure/Other |
7.0% |
HorseraceFlorida |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
52.1 |
Obama |
41.8 |
Not Sure/Other |
6.1 |
HorseraceMichigan |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
43.3% |
Obama |
49.0% |
Not Sure/Other |
7.7% |
HorseraceMissouri |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
48.5% |
Obama |
42.4% |
Not Sure/Other |
9.1% |
HorseraceNorth Carolina |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
46.6% |
Obama |
48.1% |
Not Sure/Other |
5.3% |
HorseraceNew Hampshire |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
49.1% |
Obama |
42.8% |
Not Sure/Other |
8.1% |
HorseraceNew Mexico |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
44.1% |
Obama |
45.6% |
Not Sure/Other |
10.3% |
HorseraceNevada |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
50.1% |
Obama |
42.5% |
Not Sure/Other |
7.4% |
HorseraceOhio |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
49.8% |
Obama |
43.9% |
Not Sure/Other |
6.3% |
Horserace - Pennsylvania |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
49.1% |
Obama |
44.3% |
Not Sure/Other |
6.6% |
HorseraceVirginia |
9-9/12 |
McCain |
50.3% |
Obama |
43.8% |
Not Sure/Other |
5.9% |
BS in NC!!!!!!!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The good ship Obama.
Some of this is silly. Ohio is red but Indiana is not? Please. McCain by almost 5 in Pa., and losing in North Carolina?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Isn’t this Zogby’s online polling? I’d take it with some salt.
McCain won't win it by the margin GWB did, but he will take it by double digits.
Lot of salt!
226 plus
In - 12
NC - 13
Subtotal 251
Va - 13
NH - 4
Subtotal 267
Pa - 21
Colo - 9
Subtotal 287, Game set match
I live north of Raleigh in a town where I am the only one with a McCain sign in the yard. Many more Obama signs especially in black neighborhoods. The dems have been working hot and heavy on voter registration here.
Our county Republican party has little money and Dole wouldn’t help us raise any, although she sure was quick to ask us to donate some of the little we have raised to her campaign.
We are looking at a potential blowout here! McCain on latest poll from survey 2000 in NC had him up by 15%.
Looks like a lot of “ifs” to me.
Just sayin’...
The “Good Ship Obama Pop”, it’s now a sour trip to the candy shop, where the big boys play, kiss your (I have a) dream away....!
There is still a long way to go in the election though. The good news is we have solidified most all of our "must win" states.
Florida, Missouri and North Carolina are looking great. Ohio and Virginia are also showing consistent McCain leads. We have been on the right side in the last several Nevada polls as well.
Colorado is the one "must win" where we are still struggling a little bit. Most polls show Obambi slightly up. In the end, I think it comes back home to the GOP though, and with those states in hand, McCain will become our next POTUS.
North Carolina still leans red as a whole fairly strongly, but the increasing population in RDU and Asheville and the higher black population near the NE part of the state can create issues for the GOP in the future, IMHO.
Look folks, the last thing we want is to be considered way out front. If that happens, some that swung to our side will start wondering if they were being rash. I’d rather it appear close, with us just behind.
Zogby? Come on guys! Don’t pay any attention to any of his state by state polls.
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