Posted on 09/12/2008 7:47:36 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Barack Obama knows it. The election he had in the bag is slipping away.
The selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate has so thrown him off stride, as it has most other Democrats, that all the momentum he had has vanished. He’s getting panicky advice from everywhere. He intends to launch more and sharper attacks, abandoning any pretense of a new and different, more civil campaign.
Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states — New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania — against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints — hence the panic.
For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned.
He’s begun to sound dated. Last week, for example, he devoted valuable campaign days — less than two months remain — into explaining a silly “lipstick on a pig” line. The McCain campaign had reacted, accusing him of making the reference to Palin. “I don’t care what they say about me,” Obama responded. “But I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and ‘Swiftboat politics.’ Enough is enough,” he said. (The Swiftboat reference is from the 2004 campaign of John Kerry).
The Democratic left is still seething from the Kerry campaign’s loss and is determined to see Bush expelled from the White House in disgrace — the reason it is locked in to making this a referendum on the administration now ending.
It barely worked when the maverick McCain, no darling of the Bushites, got the nomination. With Palin, the Washington outsider, the “third term” argument is plainly absurd. But Obama can’t let go, just as the lefties can’t let go of the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth defeat of Kerry. He can’t move on.
Obama has the habit, too, of reminding voters of their doubts about him, as he did in reminding a Detroit audience that he’s been accused of being less interested in protecting you from terrorists than reading them their rights. And, when he professes love of country as his basis for refusing to allow the McCain campaign to attack his words, he raises questions about why he finds the affirmation of love necessary.
Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.
McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard. The GOP is energized and suddenly an unwinnable election is reversed.
Obama got this far by winning small states and Southern states he has no chance of carrying in November. In Georgia, for example, the latest Insider Advantage poll has McCain pulling 56 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Obama, numbers that are not likely to change more than 4 percentage points in November. The undecideds and those who intend to vote for third-party campaigns are at 6 percent.
In this election, voters will decide early. Obama’s been in a yearlong campaign; McCain’s familiar. The two are sufficiently exposed and known for voters to make a decision now.
It’s not over. But it’s getting there — and Obama knows it.
Ever here of the Bradley effect?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
Barring some unforseen event, this election is gonna be a rout.
You couldn’t be more wrong. They’re the ones standing in the way of drilling. We’re the ones for it. High gas prices help us. However, I don’t hope that they increase. They’re damn high enough now and most people know they can raise at any time.
If we don’t do something now, next summer will be worse than this summer. People are realizing that.
I agree from a logic standpoint but it’s not logic, it’s elections. All they need to do is to say that the oil companies are making a profit off the storm and Joe Average will remember it in November and remember the guy that wants to give those evil profits back to “the people”. If there was a solution that took care of this between now and 11/4 I would agree but the public, in general, has a very short span of attention.
This could hurt the country for the next four years.
While the idea of getting Zero out of the Senate appeals to me I am also attracted to the idea of keeping him around to screw up the RATS next time around. He will never be elected President but the idiots who back him can force another losing nomination.
This is different. We’re within the MOE in NJ, even in MI and WA. This race isn’t anything like the 2000-2004 electoral map. People can’t get that out of their heads, but this is shaping up to be something we haven’t seen since the 80’s.
AND it is happening (Thank you Sarah Palin) because of CONSERVATISM and not RINOISM!!!!
All that seething tends to make one unpleasant to be around. As I told a liberal friend of mine in ‘96, I gave myself 5 minutes to be angry about Clinton winning and then I moved on with my life.
These fools if they’d nominated PIAPS...they wouldn’t be running around in a panic. People tried to tell them...they were smarter than all their advisors and still nominated Mr. ZERO...
I had to repost that.
I liked reading it and wanted to read it again. :o)
> He can’t move on.
That has to be the ultimate irony for a Democrat.
__
Can we start the “healing process” now. LMAO!
He will never be elected President but the idiots who back him can force another losing nomination.
***The socialist made it this far on his first term as senator. As he gets more experience, he will be viewed as more of a statesman. He is learning how to moderate his extremism.
Jim Wooten used to be a big time correspondent for ABC News and the Brinkley program. He has won many journalistic awards. That gives this piece serious credibility.
Great pics. Thanks again, Jeff.
Gas will be $5 per before memorial day or we will be sitting in lines (like we were back in the 70’s) on odd or even days and paying $4.50 for the privilege of driving to work and paying taxes.
You are not keeping up with all the numbers. The ‘average joe’ is on our side now. We’re on the right side of this. They can say anything they want about oil companies. Our case is winning that they’re FOS.
Yeah... all this talk of blowouts and landslides... I dunno, I just don't see it. I think of how close Kerry came -- Kerry! -- without the cult following and utterly slavish media enjoyed by Obama. I know things are looking good for McCain but I just think some of the high-fiving may be premature.
Thanks - Admin Mod just told me I’m a spammer, so i guess you won’t see it so much any more! ;-)
Thanks for the repost, I missed it - and too good and true to miss.
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