Posted on 09/11/2008 6:57:55 PM PDT by topher
There is technical information in the National Hurricane Center FORECAST Discussion on Hurricanes/Tropical Storms/Tropical Depressions. This is based on FORECAST DISCUSSION #43 at 5 PM EDT on Hurricane Ike (2008).
In terms of Hurricane Ike, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) stated that a HIGH PRESSURE system over Texas was causing problems to Hurricane Ike. Sapping the strenght of a Hurricane -- especially for the people in the path of the Hurricane -- is a good thing.
The High Pressure System over Texas (simply put -- a lot of lot air and dryness) is keeping the Northern, NorthWestern, and Western side of Hurricane Ike DRIER and robbing the Hurricane of moisture.
It is clear from the current (September 11, 2008 Afternoon and Evening) images, that Hurricane Ike is strongest in the Southeastern Quadrant and has a very LOPSIDED formation.
Apparently, from the discussion, this, among other factors, is keeping the STRENGTH or INTENSITY of Hurricane Ike down -- helping to keep it in the range of a Category 2 storm when in fact it is a storm that is almost consuming the entire Gulf of Mexico by its size.
This might be another Texas Tall Tale, but maybe TEXANS are blowing part of Hurricane Ike away -- as in the tradition of PECOS BILL!!!
The following is the EXCERPT from the 5PM EDT DISCUSSION on Hurricane Ike by the NHC:
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED... CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
Of course, the phrase the NHC uses is An Upper-Level Ridge over Texas that is forcing the descent and creating dry air ahead of the path of the Hurricane.
I guess the bottom line is HOT DRY AIR over the state of Texas has the effect of causing problems -- even for a Texas-sized Hurricane...
Those Texas and their bragging... Maybe that the source of all of that hot air...
It appears currently that the outer bands of the storm are already reaching Del Rio/San Antonio (maybe Austin)/Lufkin in Texas. In Louisiana, it appears the Outer Bands may be North of Alexandria in Central Louisiana.
Yesterday, South Louisiana (where I live) had rain from the outer bands. We had clear skies and then about 40 minutes later, we had rain. I also noticed a number of helicopters used by the oil industry coming in from the Western part of Louisiana to find a nice safe hangar to ride out the storm in.
I hope it stays CAT 2 and that the forecasting is off, as the Landfall and East side of the storm, if it does have 140+ mph winds, will get ripped and there will be significant damage and loss of life.
Even if the winds are only 100 mph, there is still going to be havoc from this storm...
In the Roman Catholic Church, a saint of the 2oth Century said: Pray, Hope, and Don't Worry!
Maybe that can be changed to: Board up, Evacuate, Hope, and Don't Worry!
The graphic shows the 30 foot storm surge to be near the NASA Center between Houston/Galveston. So I see what you are saying.
The Weather Channel and other news organizations should set a good example and stop broadcasting from Galveston saying it is too dangerous to be there... But the idiots of the media are part of the problem
You have a link to that graphic? It sounds interesting.
A 20-30 foot storm surge is bad enough on its own. Add the inevitable waves pounding structures for hours at a time and nothing is going to be left standing.
Water is virtually incompressible. Everyone knows what a belly flop in a pool feels like. Imagine the weight of all that water driven by those winds would do.
Anyone who tries to ride this one out is more than stupid. They’ll never find the bodies.
‘Houston decides to stare down Ike instead of leave’
Johnson Space Center is near there on very low lying ground, as I remember Houston. But maybe NASA is further away from Galveston Bay than I remember...
A Google Satellite map might show the difference...
Have you checked out the Ike live thread?
Thousands of people are planning on riding out the storm in Galveston. Much of Galveston is being flooded already.
Thousands are going to die.
Oh thanks but I have relatives down there.
I will just stay in touch and get the news/weather directly out of Galveston and Houston.
Looks like you won’t be getting any news out of Galveston much longer....
Looks like there won’t be a Galveston much longer....
JSC is in a low-lying area and not very far from Galveston at all.
It took some damage during Alicia in 1983, but this one looks like it might be worse...
JSC is in a low-lying area and not very far from Galveston at all.
It took some damage during Alicia in 1983, but this one looks like it might be worse...
One news site out of Galveston says there 1000 inmates still in the jail.
Good Lord......
I think it is toward the North end of Galveston Bay, which is where there may be a 30 foot storm surge...
Latest News Flash ‘Galveston mayor says stay put for Ike’ (to late to leave the island safely now)
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5998272.html
And they aren’t safe staying. I sure hope they wrote their names on their chests with Sharpie so the if anyone finds their bodies, they’ll be able to ID them.
Okay, thanks.
About all the sharpie comments, You dont need to repeat that so often for my benefit thanks, it sounds better on the other thread.
regards
OK.
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