Posted on 09/11/2008 6:57:55 PM PDT by topher
There is technical information in the National Hurricane Center FORECAST Discussion on Hurricanes/Tropical Storms/Tropical Depressions. This is based on FORECAST DISCUSSION #43 at 5 PM EDT on Hurricane Ike (2008).
In terms of Hurricane Ike, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) stated that a HIGH PRESSURE system over Texas was causing problems to Hurricane Ike. Sapping the strenght of a Hurricane -- especially for the people in the path of the Hurricane -- is a good thing.
The High Pressure System over Texas (simply put -- a lot of lot air and dryness) is keeping the Northern, NorthWestern, and Western side of Hurricane Ike DRIER and robbing the Hurricane of moisture.
It is clear from the current (September 11, 2008 Afternoon and Evening) images, that Hurricane Ike is strongest in the Southeastern Quadrant and has a very LOPSIDED formation.
Apparently, from the discussion, this, among other factors, is keeping the STRENGTH or INTENSITY of Hurricane Ike down -- helping to keep it in the range of a Category 2 storm when in fact it is a storm that is almost consuming the entire Gulf of Mexico by its size.
This might be another Texas Tall Tale, but maybe TEXANS are blowing part of Hurricane Ike away -- as in the tradition of PECOS BILL!!!
The following is the EXCERPT from the 5PM EDT DISCUSSION on Hurricane Ike by the NHC:
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED... CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
Of course, the phrase the NHC uses is An Upper-Level Ridge over Texas that is forcing the descent and creating dry air ahead of the path of the Hurricane.
I guess the bottom line is HOT DRY AIR over the state of Texas has the effect of causing problems -- even for a Texas-sized Hurricane...
Those Texas and their bragging... Maybe that the source of all of that hot air...
Don’t mess with Texas!!!!!!
Interesting Houston City Gov website - http://www.houstonhidefromthewind.org
We've been complaining about the dry weather of the last few weeks, but in this case it may be a blessing. Ike is a strange one! Hope it keeps tracking toward the east a little more. Ohh! Sheila is talking NOW! Let us hear her words of wisdom.... We have 9 FEMA teams on the ground and all the commodities necessary for after the storm, blah blah blahhhh.
What is going to get us on this one seems to be the storm surge because of the size of the storm.
Do you need to wet your whistle with some nice cool rain from a hurricane (assuming you are in Arizona)...
Feeling somewhat better now that a Cat 4 eyewall isn’t bearing down on my little town of Needville, but feel so bad for the folks on the coast. What a heartbreak.
It might distract people from worrying about friends in the area of impact.
And this is on a day that we remember what happened on 9-11-2001.
This is a very serious situation -- just hope we all can lighter up an relax [when possible].
Can’t answer you question specifically and don’t want to give out erronerous info. But I think the Sea Wall in Galveston is something like 15 ft but don’t hold me to that. The levee system in South Jefferson County according to the local weather guru is around 17 ft.
The weather people have been saying that water is going to be the bad thing from this storm.... hopefully if will not meet forecast expectations.
AZ always needs more rain. Skip that thing over Tejas and New Mejico, and park it over Lake Powell for a few days.
Hurricane Betsy, which struck New Orleans in the late '60s or '70s did not cause much problem except a levee broke.
I heard stories back then that people had to get on the roofs of their houses and fight for the ground against other critters that did not swimming so much -- snakes, rats, gators, etc...
It would be possible to have a shark wash in with the surge.
Might not be too much fun to share your one story house with a shark swimming around...
That man-made lake was bone dry, and I don't if it every got any significant water for it...
Was Joe Biden spotted in Texas today?
The problem is, where is the water supposed to come from, without a vastly reduced quality of life?
Now the Greenies are filing lawsuits to save the Tucson Shovel-Nosed Snake (even though no one has seen or been concerned about said snake in years). If they win, and they probably will, they will curtail the development.
But if they win, how am I supposed to argue with it?
There ain't enough water to support such a massive increase in population...unless we get more rain, or pipe our water in from the west coast via desalinization plants.
The SMART MONEY on Wall Street should be shorting the oil market as this storm will cause minimal damage.
Bankon it.
The first time I went to New Mexico, I commented on all the dry reservoirs there, but was just laughed at. What I thought were reservoir dams were actually flash-flood control dams. They’d hold the water from sudden downpours to keep it from washing out roads, but they’d be dry in a couple of days.
The Governor has told people to get out or they are in serious danger of drowning.
Apparently the combination of Gustav-Ike is causing some areas elsewhere in the country not have gasoline at service stations.
Knoxville, Tennessee, is apparently one of them...
The Governor has told people to get out or they are in serious danger of drowning..
I sure hope they heed the advice and get out. Hurricane Carla (1961) took out the bridge between Padre Island and Corpus Christi.
It might be that people who stay on Galveston ISLAND during the storm and somehow survive, might have trouble getting medical help and other things...
A word to the wise is sufficient...
My relatives are in the Corpus Christi area and have been spared, but all those people in harm’s way are somebody’s relatives.
Having the NWS issue warnings that include the words *facing certain death* is about unprecedented.
I’m afraid that this one is a little hard for me to take lightly at all. I mean, those that choose to ignore such clear warning can only blame themselves for what they get, but a 20 foot storm surge on top of high tide and with up to 50 foot waves is just a monster storm.
I’m not even relaxing about the remnants we’ll be facing by about Mon. I’m battening down everything on our property.
I appreciate your intent but somehow for this one, I don’t really think it’s going to work.
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