[AuH2ORepublican]

I think that Dick Zimmer has a chance of pulling off the upset, just as McCain/Palin has a chance of carrying NJ. Sure, it’s more likely that McCain will end up at 48% and that Zimmer will end up at 47%, but Zimmer could get to 50% by winning liberal Republican votes without his candidacy resulting in a suppressed conservative turnout (since they’ll be going out to vote for Palin, so they might as well hold their nose and vote for Zimmer over Lautenberg).

Regarding the NJ GOP’s inability to elect a Republican Senator in over 35 years, that is certainly true, but we’ve come reasonably close a few times. Had Chuck Haytaian (sp?) not refused to go negative against Lautenberg in 1994, Lautenberg would have been yet another Democrat defeated that magical November evening (a JFK-shooting-type question for our generation is “where were *you* when you heard Frank Sesno announce on CNN that exit polls showed the Republicans winning huge victories across the nation”). And had the NJ Supreme Court followed the law, Doug Forrester would have defeated Torricelli and/or a Lautenberg write-in candidacy in 2002 (although Forrester would have been a one-termer, hopefully taken out at the 2008 primary).

[Clemenza]

Chuck Haytaian is a smart man, but way too gentlemanly for NJ politics, even when he served in Trenton.

Where I don't see Zimmer succeeding where McCain will is in Gloucester, Burlington, and the outer parts of Camden County. These are largely white, blue collar, Dem areas that have supported the Louse in the last few election cycles. Zimmer should also get creamed in the blue collar precincts in Middlesex County (Woodbridge, South River, South Amboy, etc.), while McCain may actually draw some votes there.

[Clemenza]

BTW: I was at Charles Millard's "victory" party in the east 50s (he lost) when Sesno made his announcement that the GOP was taking the house and senate. Hit Pataki's victory party at the Hilton afterwards.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"(a JFK-shooting-type question for our generation is “where were *you* when you heard Frank Sesno announce on CNN that exit polls showed the Republicans winning huge victories across the nation”)."

My motel room in Bangor, Maine. I nearly broke both beds in the room from the excitement. ;-D

[Impy]

a JFK-shooting-type question for our generation is “where were *you* when you heard Frank Sesno announce on CNN that exit polls showed the Republicans winning huge victories across the nation”

I was probably at home, busy not doing my homework. :D