Race Matters: Obama and the ‘Bradley Effect’

Pajamas Media ^ | September 11, 2008 | Stephen Green

[AJKauf]

Is the Bradley Effect evenly distributed, or does it vary by state or region?

My guess — again, just a guess — is that it varies, and maybe pretty widely. Counterintuitively, perhaps, I’d say there’s less of an effect in the South. People there deal with race (not — ahem — always very successfully) almost every day, and in ways the rest of the country never had to. And frankly I’d expect a southerner to be more willing on average to tell a pollster exactly what he or she really thinks.

In liberal bastions like California and New York, the Bradley Effect might be greater than in other places....

[AlaskaErik]

I’m still curious as to if this will have any effect on the election.

[NonValueAdded]

Not to mention the Roe Effect. Talk about roosting chickens!

[varyouga]

The effect would be higher in swing and solid Blue states. The states where it would affect the outcome the most.

[GOPJ]

Conservatives aren’t going to be affected by this - it’ll be working class dems. The dem dirty secret is out - dems ARE the racists in our culture.

[GOPJ]

Conservatives aren’t going to be affected by this - it’ll be working class dems. The dem dirty secret is out - dems ARE the racists in our culture.

[scooby321]

Trust me democrats know this.

[brownsfan]

I was thinking Wright effect.

I’m not voting for a racist, I don’t care what race he claims he is.

[Mrs.Z]

He’s saying only about a 5% Bradley effect.

I bet it’s way more than that.

[Redbob]

"...I’d say there’s less of an effect in the South. People there deal with race... almost every day

[DungeonMaster]

Conservatives aren’t going to be affected by this - it’ll be working class dems. The dem dirty secret is out - dems ARE the racists in our culture.

If anyone was innocent of the sin of hating his neighbor, he'd be a perfect man. The thing with the dems is, they actually make that claim.

[jveritas]

This is one of the four main issues on why Obama will lose. 20% of his own party will not vote for him because they will never vote for a black. No one can win an Presidential elections with only 80% of his party supporting him. The democrat party is the home of racists of all colors.

The other three mains issues are that Obama is a socialist, Obama is a defeatist, and Obama is left wing liberal. 91% of the Republicans and 57% of the independents will vote against him because of these three issues.

[popdonnelly]

Don’t take anything for granted. Obama still has a chance to win this election, and he’s too big a risk for that to be acceptable. Fight his campaign every inch of the way.

[jveritas]

Agree 100%.

[ElkGroveDan]

I hate this stupid myth. Tom Bradley lost because of a gun control measure on the ballot that caused low propensity voters to turn out in droves at the end. It had nothing to do with imaginary secret racism. That’s the truth.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I find it provocative that Obama won in Caucus states, where you vote in public and Hillary won, often overwhelmingly, in states where the primaries were by secret ballot.

[Liberty Valance]

ahhh, the old Bradley effect scenario.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Clemenza]

The Bradley/Wilder/Washington/Dinkens effect is NOT a myth, as it has repeated itself constantly over the years. Mostly, it refers to white female voters who are embarassed to say they will not be supporting the black candidate, but vote for the white one in the privacy of the voting booth. Any pollster for the four elections mentioned will verify that it had the effect of shaving at least 5 percentage points from the final tallys.

[Antoninus]

He’s saying only about a 5% Bradley effect. I bet it’s way more than that.

You heard it here first---Obama will poll neck and neck with McCain but will lose by 10% on election day. Because of this, the media will immediately announce that America is a nation of closet racists.

[jveritas]

Obama has zero chance of winning this elections for the reasons I stated in my earlier post. Having said that I totally agree with you that we need to work hard for victory.