Ayyeeeeeee
Posted on 09/10/2008 11:11:41 AM PDT by Schumpeter
The Obama campaign seems to have experienced a "Minsky Moment." That, as any financial bubblologist worth his weight in tulips knows, is the particular point in time when no more "greater fools" can be found to support a bubble and a Great Deflation finally begins. Sssssss. (The financial phenomenon is named after economist Hyman Minksy.)
Now Obama's Minsky Moment is morphing into the McCain Moment. The evidence? Here goes: 1) The final 10 national polls in June had Barack Obama up by an average of 7 percentage points. The past eight polls this month have John McCain up by a bit more than 2 points, according to RealClearPolitics. 2) Right around the same time that Obama's polling lead was entering landslide territory in June, his odds of victory over at the Intrade betting markets were hovering at a sky-high 70 percent. Today, Obama's chances are right around 50-50 vs. McCain. 3) And now, according to a New York Times story yesterday, the deluge of donations has started drying up: "Pushing a fundraiser later this month, a finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of its national finance committee, calling their recent efforts 'extremely anemic.'"
Speculative bubbles have come in many different varieties: flowers, railway shares, Florida property, Beanie Babies, comic books, technology stocks, exurb McMansions. Does Candidate Obama qualify? Well, the candidate does sound a bit like a lot of the hot Internet companies back in the late 1990s. Not much of a track record. Lots of media hype. Parabolic ascent. And now a stomach-dropping decline.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
BTTT!
While I fully agree with the analysis (It's a different angle or perception on something many of us already knew), but I don't know if Obama will implode. But I'm a pessimist.
This election is about form vs. function.
Nick of MA
Actually it's not so much that his "bubble popped".
The Obama acceptance speech (venue, backdrop, etc.) "jumped the shark"---representing the point when the Obama TV series gets cancelled mid-season.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/9/10/pop-why-the-obama-bubble-has-collapsed/comments/
He seems to stil be coasting and restng on his laurels, and a hearty competitor is overtaking him.
Obama has already been running for 9 months! You cannot keep hype up that long. He has months to go yet. McCain is just warming up. It’s going to be a great fall.
Ayyeeeeeee
Well put!
I will take a guess. Because it was a .um..bubble ?
What is Obama going to come back with, since his candidacy was explicitly about nothing but Change. He doesn't exactly have a plan B to fall back on.
Here's the other problem. Populism is personality driven. Left and right wing voters are issue driven. Centerists are not. They're looking for inspiration; the more immaterial qualities of leadership. Barack blew his inspirational load already. Now he's tired. Old news. The American center is forever in search of a shiny object to amuse it.
Sarah Palin is that shiny object. The fact that she appeals to the right wing, due to her issues stances, is nice for us. But it's her role as the Next Big Thing that's deflated Obama. Who gives a flip about Hopey McChange now? What's *Sarah* doing? Where's she going? What's she saying?
The media would love to help, and they don't want Palin to win, but they must chase the ratings, so like moths to the flame....
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
And, "where can I get frames like hers?"
A fresh face and an interesting story only works until the next fresh face and interesting story comes along.
Obama’s left withnothin’
Obama is a “Pet Rock”
The blood is in the water.
It won’t be long now.
lol that kicks it up a notch
You CAN burn white-hot for a very, very long time.
But ONLY if you have REAL fuel, power, and determination behind you.
No fuel?
No flame.
And then you “poof” out because there is no substance.
An Obama (e-) encounters a Hillary (e-) and the resulting anihilation produces a virtual photon (y) which becomes a McCain (q) Palin (q-) pair radiating excitement (g).
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