Posted on 09/10/2008 8:30:10 AM PDT by tomymind
Tallahassee, FL (AHN) - Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is ahead by five points in the first poll of Sunshine State voters since the GOP convention last week.
According to the Public Policy Polling, McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 50-45 percent, up from his 47-44 percent advantage last month.
McCain has the support of white voters, 61-34 percent, men, 51-42 percent, and all age groups except those younger than 29 years. He leads seniors, 57-38 percent.
Obama holds the edge among Hispanics, 49-42 percent, blacks, 88-10 percent, and young voters, 52-44 percent.
Women are essentially tied between McCain and Obama at 49-47 percent.
Forty-five percent of voters said Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin made them more likely to support McCain, while 34 percent said they were less likely. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) drew 36 percent more-likely responses for Obama and 30 percent less-likely answers.
Significant also is a five point shift in party identification toward Republicans.
"Barack Obama has dropped a few points each time we've polled Florida over the course of the summer," Public Policy Polling President Dean Debnam said in a news release. "Virginia and Colorado may end up as the states more critical to his Electoral College strategy this fall if the trend continues."
The survey was conducted from Sept. 6-7 among 968 likely voters. The margin of error is 3 percent.
Florida is a battleground state that decided the 2000 presidential election. It is one of six states with the most electoral votes, at 27. A candidate needs 270 out of the total 538 electoral votes from all states to win.
This is good news.
I’m all excited about Michigan being in play but it does us no good if Florida seeps through the cracks.
McCain will take it by 5 points.
Big news if McCain can hold on to Ohio and Florida with ease. It lets McCain focus on CO and MI to wrap it up. Two big Hockey states for the Hockey Mom to deliver.
CO and NV (or CO and NH) are the next targets. We need 272-273 EV at least.
Does anyone have a link to an up-to-date look at the electoral map (in its entirety?)
We WON’T lose FL, and I’m pretty sure McCain will keep OH. I’m only worried now about VA and CO. We get those two, it’s over. I think McCain will peel away the one EV from ME, and possibly NH.
Me = MI?
NH or NV
True to form.
He's never finished well.
There are only so many stupids here in Florida.
But I think we’ll go for McCain come election time.
And I wouldn’t trust any polls anywhere at this time.
Come time to throw the lever for the “magic negro”, a lot of folks will look at security and experience.
Doesn't each state have at least 3 EVs?
# of senators plus # of representatives.
bttt
IMHO, at least 5 points.
Does anyone know what percentage of Florida African-Americans were won by Kerry? I find the 88% number a bit low, suggesting that perhaps the "black" vote is not going to be reflexively voting for "one of their own" as many speculate. I think that is a good sign, for the culture, as well as for McCain.
Yeah, they're the ones who didn't graduate from UF. (Ok, ok we've had our share of knuckleheads too)
McCain should campaign in New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Colorado, not in Florida.
But Rasmussen has it tied. He is doing something wrong in his sampling...
More good news.
A good poll to with only 3% margin of error vs some recent one’s with 4.5%.
I really think McCain is going to win Fl,Ohio,Pa...Pa being the biggest stretch, but very doable with Palin on the ticket and Obama with huge negatives up there...I think Michigan will come right down to the wire.
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