Rasmussen 9/10/08: 48-47 Obama with leaners (46-46 w/o leaners)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll ^

[CatOwner]

This results matches the WSJ poll released yesterday showing Obama up 47-46 with leaners. I am starting to think that the Gallup results (+5 RV, +10 LV) are outliers.

[impeachedrapist]

Here it is:

We see the first effects of McCain/Palin replacing Bush/Cheney in Monday's USA Today/Gallup Poll, in which 48 percent say they're Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party; 47 percent say they're Republicans or lean to the GOP. That merely 1-point party gap -- the strongest position for Republicans since Bush's second inaugural, at the beginning of 2005 -- had been in double digits only a few weeks ago. Moreover, voters -- by only 48-45 percent -- support the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts, the Democratic Party's narrowest advantage this year.

Here

These numbers also come from the recent Gallup poll. So you can look at it two ways: 1) Gallup has accurately captured the recent enthusiasm for the GOP; or 2) the Gallup poll randomly oversampled Pubbies, thereby resulting in the 10-point lead for McCain/Palin.

[impeachedrapist]

If you would read through the thread, you’d have your answer. You may not like his methodology, but it’s there for all to see.

[nathanbedford]

Perhaps the answer to this seeming inconsistency has already been posted honestly a few days ago. It says that according to USA/Gallup Republicans and narrowed party identification one point shortfall, 48 to 47. This would mean that instead of 5.7% difference there is a 1% difference and the poll as therefore oversampled by 4.7%.

Allahpundit flagged an interesting point in an updated version of the USA Today story on their latest polling in the presidential race. According to the internals of the Gallup survey, McCain’s ascension to the leadership of the GOP may have healed the brand. Democrats lead Republicans in party identification by a single point:

In the new survey, more voters call themselves Republicans. Now 48% say they’re Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party; 47% say they’re Republicans or lean to the GOP.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2077484/posts

[ncalburt]

Its the WSJ poll its the NBC/WSJ poll . Two of the most Pro Obama media outlets out there. The WSJ has been peddling non stop Palin smears for the last two weeks.Who would believe a thing from either McCain/Palin smear machines ? Its not the first time your posts seem to be intended to throw cold water on McCain support !

[impeachedrapist]

unless McCain can pick up one elsewhere.

McCain has a good shot at picking off NH, WI, MI, PA, maybe IA or WA, or even MN.

[fremont_steve]

I took my own un-scientific poll here in the SF Bay area - specifically near San Jose. It involved my wife going to get her hair done. If it isn’t obvious to the most casual observer, the bay area is a traditional hot bed for democratic support.

Well, my wife blew my socks off yesterday when she said the hot topic of conversation at the beauty shop was none other than who to vote for. These ladies were undoubtedly all democratic supporters - but they’re talking about and considering McCain/Palin now all due to Palin!

I hadn’t really expected the Hillary factor to be real - but from this little data point - sure seems to be just that. So there are a number of liberal women that are giving second thoughts to Obama support due to Palin - at least here in the SF Bay area.

[impeachedrapist]

This would mean that instead of 5.7% difference there is a 1% difference and the poll as therefore oversampled by 4.7%.

As covered earlier this poll is using a 7.6% differential, not a 5.7. And the 1% difference is from the Gallup poll, based on random selection. So one poll using another poll's statistics for weighting purposes would be a risky proposition.

[CatOwner]

I hadn’t really expected the Hillary factor to be real - but from this little data point - sure seems to be just that. So there are a number of liberal women that are giving second thoughts to Obama support due to Palin - at least here in the SF Bay area.

I wonder if this is similar to the Bradley effect (BTW, I have lived in the Bay Area for 31 years). Instead, we now have liberal women saying they're thinking of voting for McCain because of Palin, but when in the voting booth, their liberal instinct takes over.

Now, if any of these women were independents, that would be a different story.

[nathanbedford]

I was misled by your reference to the gap being 5.7%. If the gap is as calculated by Rasmussen to be 7.6% and the gap as calculated by Gallup is 1% then the potential error is all the more to McCain's favor, correct?

Wouldn't that mean that 6.6% more Democrats were sampled by Rasmussen than the new reality supplied by Gallup requires? Would not one expect 80% plus of these 6.6% to support McCain? I do not understand why the differences in methodology between Rasmussen and Gallup have to do with establishing the correct ratio of Republicans and Democrats.

Could you kindly explain?

[impeachedrapist]

You're making the assumption that Gallup's 1% differential, obtained through one poll's random selection, is reality. It could be, sure, but then again that Gallup poll could be flawed.

Rasmussen should use his own methodology and numbers for his own polls. Which is what he is doing. But he admittedly states that his 90-day rolling average, which tends to smooth out the peaks and valleys, may well have a serious disadvantage in that it misses out on any quick surges in party identification.

I personally think Gallup's 1% differential is closer to reality than Rasmussen's 5.7% differential from a couple of weeks ago. I base that on spiked fundraising, previous election totals, surges in state polls, reports from the campaign HQs, some voter registration numbers, etc. But I think it's too early to say, without more concrete data.

Do I think Rasmussen poll is underestimating McCain/Palin's performance? Yes, I do.

[LadyNavyVet]

“What were the differences in the Party affiliations in 2004 comapred to 2008 ?”

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/party_affiliation/summary_of_party_affiliation

[pgkdan]

So you can look at it two ways: 1) Gallup has accurately captured the recent enthusiasm for the GOP; or 2) the Gallup poll randomly oversampled Pubbies, thereby resulting in the 10-point lead for McCain/Palin.

This is great news for McCain /Palin. I think Gallup just tapped into the rise in Republican enthusiasm earlier than other pollsters. We now have polls showing McCain/Palin have benefitted from a 20+% swing among white females. They lead among independents and men and now GOP self ID is rising. Great news I'd say.

McCain has found his stride and this time I don't think he's going to let anyone get in his way.

[nathanbedford]

A poll has just been released in Florida which bears the following single line: Significant also is a five point shift in party identification toward Republicans.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2079088/posts

[impeachedrapist]

And there’s some more concrete data, thanks. :-)

[MCOAvalanche]

From your lips to God’s ears...as they say.

I think NH and MI and possibly PA roll McCains way but MN, IA and WA - no way.

If polls in these states start trending McCain’s way by election day and get even close to too close to call—Obama is going to have a Loooooong night and McCain a historic win.

My big fear to derail the recent success is the debates. I can almost feel a MSM ambush coming against McCain or Palin or both during the debates.

[impeachedrapist]

WI is a very real possibility. IA has been very close the past two Presidential elections, but McCain’s lack of campaigning and Obama’s ground game there make me doubt McCain can win it. Concerning MN, I found out only yesterday or the day before that McCain’s advertising there, and his camp feel they have a good shot. WA - I have my doubts, but a very recent poll showed McCain/Palin trailing only 48-45.

[MCOAvalanche]

WI and MN have gone DEM in every election it seems.

I would say WI before MN.

IA surprises me - why is it so heavily DEM?? I would think the people living in the urban areas outnumber the farmers and such so that's why DEMS lead? Although the Governor is no help, big Obama backer.

WA I think by election day will depend on voter turnout in the area outside of Seattle.

I am worried about Michigan and PA, if we can grab one or both, I would be able to breathe easier about the prospects of a McCain win!!