[nathanbedford]

I was misled by your reference to the gap being 5.7%. If the gap is as calculated by Rasmussen to be 7.6% and the gap as calculated by Gallup is 1% then the potential error is all the more to McCain's favor, correct?

Wouldn't that mean that 6.6% more Democrats were sampled by Rasmussen than the new reality supplied by Gallup requires? Would not one expect 80% plus of these 6.6% to support McCain? I do not understand why the differences in methodology between Rasmussen and Gallup have to do with establishing the correct ratio of Republicans and Democrats.

Could you kindly explain?

[impeachedrapist]

You're making the assumption that Gallup's 1% differential, obtained through one poll's random selection, is reality. It could be, sure, but then again that Gallup poll could be flawed.

Rasmussen should use his own methodology and numbers for his own polls. Which is what he is doing. But he admittedly states that his 90-day rolling average, which tends to smooth out the peaks and valleys, may well have a serious disadvantage in that it misses out on any quick surges in party identification.

I personally think Gallup's 1% differential is closer to reality than Rasmussen's 5.7% differential from a couple of weeks ago. I base that on spiked fundraising, previous election totals, surges in state polls, reports from the campaign HQs, some voter registration numbers, etc. But I think it's too early to say, without more concrete data.

Do I think Rasmussen poll is underestimating McCain/Palin's performance? Yes, I do.