Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
If these polls are anywhere near reality, we are in deep trouble... They’re taken at the peak of JM’s bounce, which is bound to erode... I still think it’s dead even when the bounce fades, electoral and popular
According to Fox News, McCain has a higher favorability rating and he is trusted more. Could this be an example of the Bradley effect?
A month ago, I couldn't drive down a street and not see an Obama sign or someone wearing pro-Obama shirts.
Lately I've noticed the signs are weathering and not getting replaced. T-shirts aren't as popular.
I'm also noticing a good deal more McCain bumper stickers around town.
While this is obviously scientific in anyway, I think you can tell a great deal about the tides of an election by watching the support candidates have with the general public.
That’s just unbelievable.
On the morning of Sunday, September 7?!? So this is a poll of only the people who do not go to church? If so, nobama is in HUGE trouble.
All indications are that our convention was a very big success and that the Palin pick rallied the base. In states with large GOP bases (including Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Florida), that is bound to help.
My guess is we will see other polls that are even more favorable to McCain in the near future.
It is axiomatic that Sundays are bad polling days for the GOP.
FL, like the others, is a one day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5% MOE. Mac isn’t spending money in FL, what does that tell you, and weren’t Hillary and Biden just there? By the way, if you’re so critical of Mac’s FL numbers what do you think of PA being only + 2 for Obambi? If I was Axelrod I wouldn’t be very happy about that, especially considering that Obambi just spent considerable there.
What bounce? These are the same numbers we were seeing before pretty much except PA.
This set is a dud. Once again the fav/unfav ratings the the actual vote percentages aren’t gelling. Something’s off here.
:)
Nah. We're not in deep trouble at all. These results do suggest a close race though.
I've never thought a blowout was likely, but McCain is in very good position to earn an EC vicotry.
Yeah, but he isn’t getting church going Republicans if the calls are made on Sunday morning.
The same results as Colorado. These are the most recent numbers and they coincide with all the new polls showing McCain ahead.
“In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching.”
Could it be the McCain voters were out doing something about the appraoching storm, while the Obama voters were waiting inside for the government to come CALLING?
Colorado is VERY encouraging.
Two weeks ago the dems flooded the state with the convention. They dumped millions into the state. The local news was all Obama all the time for over a month.
And all they can get is a 3 point lead.
I’ll giggle my head off if we take CO.
to those of you with a million lame excuses, how lame... Those excuses are all tired and debunked many times over
The same results as Colorado. These are the most recent numbers and they coincide with all the new polls showing McCain ahead.
It is pretty much unheard of that a person with a +24 favorability loses to a guy with a +10 favoribility. I'm not saying it can never happen, but it is very, very rare.
For those of you wondering about a Bradley Effect, this data might suggest there is one at work in Colorado.
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