Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I wanted to ask the Free Republic members what, if any polls they recommend purchasing, I can’t get enough of these numbers, is it worth becoming a premium member of Rasmussen or any of the other polling sites????
Thanks.
Thank you.
I would go with Ras, but I don’t care to spare that kind of money. But I have not been impressed with any of the pollsters this year. I mean look at the primaries - they were a mess.
LOL :)
I know many jews who will not vote obama who would have voted clinton. My grandmother lives in a retiree complex where clinton won dem primary in that precinct with 95percent of vote. Grandma usuall only GOPer. None of her friends wants to talk openly about election or how they will vote. Usually all they talk is politics. Grandma has feeling Obama no chance there in setting where dem candidate usually wins 90-10. These complexes are in Wexlers district. Racial politics taking hold there amongst these old dems.
“not to the kid of guys Obama chose to vet his VP, like the former CEO of Fannie Mae ....”
explain please...
“Add 4.5 points to McCain and take away 4.5 points from Obama if it helps you sleep tonight.”
Sarcasm will get you nowhere. My point is a friend of mine in New York State who is in the polling business told me that polls with MOE’s over 3% are merely snapshots, nothing more. They are not accurate. Why do you think Scott and Gallup do 3 day rolling averages with MOE’s of 2%? Because they’re accurate, that’s why.
“It’s a one-day poll on a Sunday with a 4.5 MoE. Of course, state polling is usually one day, and Sunday doesn’t mean anything when Ras is norming for party affiliation.”
I referred to Sunday because it was 1 day. Where did you come up with this spin on 1 day State polling? Who other than Ras’ does 1 day snapshot State polling? Mason Dixon? No. Survey USA? No. Quinnipiac? No. Gallup? No. Bill McInturff? No.
“Florida is not the same state it was in 2004. It is gaining minorities all the time and the housing market is in the dumper. In 2004 people were feeling pretty wealthy around here. This year, they’re watching their neighbors get foreclosed on. GWB won FL by five points. He was an incumbent President in wartime. McCain doesn’t have those tailwinds.”
Your above comment can be said of the entire country, not just FL, no way. GWB won by 5 when some polls had him favored by 1 or 2 and some polls had Kerry favored. In the end it wasn’t close. McCain does have tailwinds at his back in many parts of the Sunshine State, maybe not Miami Dade and some of the other well known liberal counties. And I do not buy the line I hear every 4 years that FL’s Spanish community is leaning more and more democratic, this premise has been proven false in every recent national election.
I’m going to watch the Green Bay game now, good night.
agree with you 100 percent. mccain will win here with biggest margin since bush 1988. Every dem I know wont talk openly about who they are voting for. Nothing like racial politics on there side. Look at the dem primary results here i dont think obama got more then 20 percent of shite vote. he got crushed in the jewish retiree complexes in palm beach and broward. they wont vote for him. these were people who fled the riots in newark, detroit and left brooklyn when the neighborhood composition changed. they are dems just not jesse jackson liberals.
Exactly. How are they going to make up all those lost votes. Palm Beach is one of the most Jewish counties in the nation. That would’ve been a beacon of support for Hillary, not so much for Obama. Cubans for Hillary, not so much for Obama.
you don’t see it red we are red
I feel for you being up there, it has a bad reputation for being stuck up and elitist.
All horrible , all the same no character houses.
Why anyone would want to spend that money living in a place which doesn’t even belong to you on the outside with all of them the same manicured areas is beyond me
infact in MICA’s area we are one of the redder counties maybe not in the north part like julington creek ,ponte vedra , stuck up elitist area as much but from st augustine downwards it is very red.
Plus go down 13 and all down there on the west side.
look at our officials, look at our rep and look at how our county votes on presidential elections
I hate the north part of the county it has has been taken over by elitist compounds.
The view by many is that we wish they would go home to their liberal states.
They have destroyed that part of the county, now they will have nocatee
I am not alone in thinking this ,
virtually every person who has lived here for over 7 years feels the same.
Cindy Stevenson cannot understand that the more she lets contractors build the more liberals move in who will vote against her.
Of course she lives up in fruit cove so she’ll never know how the rest of the county thinks about that housing association.
I think once you look at the stats that we are most certainly red but if the likes of Stevenson keeps letting these contractors in then it will turn blue
I live in Cincinnati and have followed the race in Ohio very closely. I am encouraged by this Rasmussen poll, although they’ve had McCain in the lead for months and by a larger margin than most other polls. I think it is going to be very close, but McCain is in good shape because of his opponent. I’ve studied the returns in the Democratic primary and Obama is going to be even less popular in rural Ohio than Kerry was in 2004. Hillary won by almost 9% and a 200,000 vote margin. She won 83 out of 88 counties, losing only in the bigger cities with large black populations. In counties with less than 50,000 voters, she won with more than 60% of the vote. Obama received over 1,000,000 votes, but half of those came in the five counties he won. He is going to lose Clinton voters in droves in SE Ohio and NW Ohio. That alone gives McCain a good shot at winning.
McCain has focused more on turnout, which is smart. Last week, I received a direct mailing from the McCain campaign with absentee ballot requests. McCain also left a message on my answering machine telling me that they were on the way. In terms of advertising, McCain has stepped up his presence significantly. Yard signs have started popping up and he’s running probably twice as many TV ads as Obama, especially considering the RNC ads. McCain won’t be able to match the well-oiled Bush campaign in Ohio, but he’s running a strong campaign here and he’s making a big investment.
save your money Mike
just keep watching all polls and get the word out about how bad Obama is, if you know many Jewish voters then let them know how Obama feels about Hizbullah and Hamas plus about the nation of islam and his going to a church which is against Israel
good luck
They cant. Blacks may be 15 percent of our population, but many are non-citizens from haiti and jamaica. Further there popultaion tends to skew younger then white population.
Kerry maximized black voter turnout in 2004. Obama has no room to grow as a percentage of voters.
The congressional districts of pennsylvania 1 and 2 had the highest voter turnout in the country as compared with there estimated population as of 2005. White voter turout lags that of black voter turnout.
It is going to be very hard for many of Floridas elderly dems who hail from the northeast to vote for someone who doesnt look like them. Think of the philadelphia mayoral election of john street vs. sam katz.
They cant. Blacks may be 15 percent of our population, but many are non-citizens from haiti and jamaica. Further there popultaion tends to skew younger then white population.
Kerry maximized black voter turnout in 2004. Obama has no room to grow as a percentage of voters.
The congressional districts of pennsylvania 1 and 2 had the highest voter turnout in the country as compared with there estimated population as of 2005. White voter turout lags that of black voter turnout.
It is going to be very hard for many of Floridas elderly dems who hail from the northeast to vote for someone who doesnt look like them. Think of the philadelphia mayoral election of john street vs. sam katz.
This is the first poll I have seen where McCain is equal all the others had him in the lead
we have many vets, up here in the north part it is very conservative and republican, then there is the Cubans and many of the elderly who do not trust him unlike they did with Clinton
Not really a big % of blacks compared to say VA I think though I do not see many because of where I live in st johns county, saying that and thinking about it there is not many Hispanics here either.
The poll about FL has to be wrong
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