Dead Heat: John McCain, Barack Obama Even in Post-Convention Poll [ABC/WaPo Shocker]

ABC News ^ | September 8, 2008 | Gary Langer

[Zakeet]

White Women Shift to McCain as Republican Erodes Obama Lead on Change, Enthusiasm

John McCain's taken the better boost from the presidential nominating conventions, eroding Barack Obama's advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush -- and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.

Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.

Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges -- the question of his experience, the definition of the change he'd bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.

[Chet 99]

With the closing of the ‘enthusiasm gap’, you’re right.

[colorado tanker]

Registered voter poll. Buried in the article is that McCain leads among likely voters.

[kesg]

There are more registered Dems than Reps nation wide. That is why the polling numbers differ.

To quote a stunningly perfect VP candidate, as if I didn't already know that. But the gap isn't 50D,41R, either. It might have been a few months ago, but not today. And it is never that high (or going to be that high) in a Presidential election year.

The fine print (the ABC write-up) admits that it oversampled black voters and then tried to adjust. Draw your own conclusions from that.

[SE Mom]

I sent the link to Drudge this morning- everyone should- though I don’t think he’ll touch it.

[KavMan]

Isn’t this GAME OVER with all the leads mcCain has over all these groups?

[kesg]

I havent’ seen anything yet.

[gswilder]

I can see some of the battlegrounds updated on RCP to show Rasmussen.

Ohio - McCain +7 (wow)
PA - Obama +2 (looking good)
CO - Obama +3 (ouch)
FL - Tie

Overall a mixed bag. But states do lag.

[2nd Amendment]

I don’t know what I’m savoring most, McCain/Pa;in’s rise in the polls or the discomfort displayed by the media kool-aid drinkers.

[rabidralph]

I hope Kim Gandy is on suicide watch.

[KansasGirl]

I noticed at the Lee’s Summit rally today—A LOT of women with children and A LOT of young professional women!!

These are crawl over broken glass votes for McCain-Palin. Count on it!

[ajwharton]

Do they weight for party affiliation?

[rabidralph]

We need to get people to realize that we can’t pass drilling legislation without a republican congress.

[colorado tanker]

Yes, the states aren't polled as frequently and it can take a while for trends to show up in them.

I don't know why, but the public polls here tend to understate Republican support. Six years ago the public polls all put Strickland ahead of Allard, who won. It turned out after the election Allard's internals showed him with a lead about as large as the ultimate vote.

[ConservativeGreek]

The sample was 36D 28R 32I.
Then they got pushed to one party or the other.

However, this was interesting.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults and 961 registered voters, including additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 211 black respondents. The additional interviews (commonly referred to as an “oversample”) were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis;

[ConservativeGreek]

The sample was 36D 28R 32I.
Then they got pushed to one party or the other.

However, this was interesting.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults and 961 registered voters, including additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 211 black respondents. The additional interviews (commonly referred to as an “oversample”) were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis;

[Perdogg]

No, we cannot get cocky, they haven’t even begun with the nukes.

[LostInBayport]

That is vile.

There is nothing so filled with unrestrained, ugly hatred like the left in this country. Not to mention hypocrisy; if someone did something like this about a democrat there would be wailing in the streets by every social whiner group and...community organizer...out there.

[Zakeet]

More good news from the Washington Post write-up. Highlights include:

• Only four in 10 voters in the new poll said Obama has done enough to explain the "change" he promises; that's down six points from before his convention, during which he set out his ideas before more than 84,000 people in Denver and a television audience of nearly 40 million.

• Although Obama maintains a sizable, 12-point advantage as the one who would do more to change government, that's down from a 32-point lead on the question in June.

• McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can best handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs.

• McCain has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that voters had been divided on since the outset of the campaign.

• On the dominant issue of the election, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama's advantage to a mere five points, the smallest it's been this year.

• McCain has drawn even with Obama on energy policy and has sharply narrowed Obama's lead on dealing with the federal deficit and handling social issues such as abortion and gay civil unions.

• McCain continues to hold a huge lead on the question of who would make a better commander in chief.

• Obama hasn't completely won over former supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, nearly a quarter of whom (23 percent) said they will support the McCain.

More material in the Washington Post article.

[kesg]

These numbers don’t make much sense, unless Rasmussen is applying different party identification weights for each state. There is no way that McCain is surging nationally and in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania while not surging even more in places like Colorado and Florida. If McCain is really up 7 in Ohio and down by only 2 in Pennnsylvania, I would expect him to be up 7-8 in Colorado and up 10 or more in Florida.

Let me explain it this way. Ohio is pretty much at the national average (trending ever so slightly Democratic) in the last two Presidential elections. Florida, by contrast, is trending fairly strongly Republican athough it is still properly classifed as a light red state. Colorado is trending more Democratic, but is still more Republican than the nation as a whole. So, with what know to be a McCain poll surge the last few days (even in Rasmussen), I would expect to see all four polls moving in the same direction. And I would expect to see McCain leading in Florida and Colorado by bigger margins than he is leading in Ohio.

[gswilder]

20 point swing among the white women demographic is absolutely HUGE.

Can you say PUMA’s?

WOW.

Sometimes the internals can be more telling than the top line numbers.