Include about 5 pts for manifest CNN bias in the structure of the poll, and 8-9 pts for the Bradley effect, and I’d say that Osamabama and Bidet are burnt toast.
I see Bradley Effect in every post about polls, but lets get honest here, do not depend on it do not even figure it in. The Bradley Effect was over 20 years ago and we live in a new era. Does it still exist? Who knows, but play as if you are down 6 points and you are on the 1 yard line and have 1:50 left to drive 99 yards for the go ahead touchdown.