I don’t know how many times the NHC has stated NOT to put any weight in the models they use. Models are often wrong, pay attention to thier forecast. Not the models! And I don’t recall a NHC forecasting a Fla hit for Ike.
Oh - I agree with you about the models! It is simply very curious to me that one of the premier intensity models has taken a walk on the wild side with Ike. In fact, until GFDL upgrade came along, SHIPS was the only model that did decently for intensity.
And, as far as what the NHC was calling for, I again refer to the history of their predicted track, the gray line, as posted earlier. Earlier this week, Ike was more anticipated as a threat to the East Coast than to the GOM.