I noticed with Fray, Hanna and Gustav just how good the NHC is getting at predicting the path of big hurricanes. I used to joke that the one thing I know for sure is that 3 days out, where ever the NHC says it’s going is safe from the hurricane. lol, Not any more, I am very impressed with thier skill this season.
You are right although they did miss Fay pretty badly. They did say they knew why they were missing it tho.
Look at this:
Only two days ago, NHC had this dead center into the FL Everglades! (the 00Z 9/05 NHC official track)
Sorry - I don't see that they deserve the kudos you give them. They are doing good at predicting the next 1-2 days track, but that is as well as they've done with Ike.
Well, just the day before yesterday, they had Miami taking a direct hit from Ike as a category 4; now Miami is apparently in the clear, while Cuba and then the Gulf coast are looking to be hit. For about 5 days now, every forecast update has moved the track a little to the right. It's almost as if there has been a man out there slowly swinging a rifle across a crowd who is just waiting to see at whom he will take final aim.