Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Before Katrina, the media would always worry about New Orleans, and after Katrina, the media worries about New Orleans - it’s a pretty long standing standard in the media to point out the weakest city in the region for a hurricane hit.
I mean, when you get down to it, New Orleans was barely brushed by Katrina - those who took the brunt of the storm were nearly wiped out. So, yeah, the media will continue to point towards New Orleans anytime it’s within the possible track cone. It’s just what they’ve always done.
pick up where I left off
Without a shift in weather patterns presently projected, yes, Ike will re-intensify greatly once it is back over water and likely will enter the Gulf of Mexico after it's done munching on Cuba.
A category 3 landfall is expected, unless Ike swings well left of guidance track and goes into the Yucatan Peninsula.
I still can’t believe the presentation on Cuban radar, visible sat, and water vapor - Ike ran over Cuba like an SUV runs over a parking lot speed bump. Yeah, it felt it, but it doesn’t mean it’s slowing down much. Absolutely amazing! I hope the rightward shift in track is right, at least at Cuba, as that’ll help weaken Ike, but it’s got such a tight center of circulation, it’s just.. Well, breathtaking. I really hope that everyone in Cuba got out of it’s way, as there’s likely not a whole heck of a lot that’s standing up that isn’t a /very/ well built structure.
we're doomed....
Earlier I responded to the poster who commented that we would see if the seawall does what it was intended to. What we will really see is if the effort to raise the eastern part of the island 12 feet will do what it was intended to do.
Here's the weatherunderground image.
There's some variation in storm track for the beginning of it, but from this point on, it looks pretty close. And the Gulf is still very warm. Gustav gained a lot more strength than expected when it hit the Gulf. I haven't looked at yet whether conditions will be right besides the water temp.
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?52 — This is an animation of the Cuban radar images as Ike came to and over Cuba for those who have some interest in watching.
Interestingly, there was another one that hit in 1915 and followed pretty much the same storm track.
Here's the 1915 one...
I got the info from wikipedia for anyone who wants to check. There's a lot if you google Galveston hurricane.
Yes, I was dumbstruck when I saw the Cuba video clip on local early news this morning. This storm is affecting every inch of Cuba. I wonder what the Cuban government did with all the tourists.
It’ll also be interesting to see if Ike hooks around as sharply as the two Galveston hurricanes once it makes landfall.
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Powerful Hurricane Ike to Miss Fla. Keys; Still a Threat to Gulf
Let's put the NHC current intensity guess (which incorporates many models including GFDL) and SHIPS side by side - and realize that though SHIPS has been the premier intensity model in the past, for Ike it has not done well at all beyond 48 hours:
(hours from now) now 24 48 72 96 120 NWC official (11AM) 85 75 80 95 100 100 SHIPS latest (7AM) 95 83 81 76 70 56
NWC has put all their eggs in the GFDL basket, for sure, as it is the only decent intensity model other than SHIPS, as I understand. I don't blame them. SHIPS has not done well - but now at least it still has Ike a hurricane 3 days out - maybe it is going to get back on track.
It is hard for me to imagine that Ike will NOT intensify after it shakes off Cuba, given my rudimentary understanding. It's likely to be Cat.2 two to three days out, and after that, I wouldn't hazard a guess beyond that, though NWC has it getting into Cat.3 - - It is important to realize that by then, it is still very far from a US landfall.
Hurricane Ike has emerged into the Caribbean Sea. SST are hot.
We’ll have to see if Ike drops to a Cat 1 by 8pm tonight as that track forecast shows. A little later, probably. I’m showing about 340 miles before it makes landfall on the western part of Cuba.
Yes - I am really surprised at the way they are knocking down the intensity ... I hope that is right, though.
As for path right now, Ike looks like its next target is to put its entire eye over the western part of Cuba but miss the Yucatan.
Just moving the cursor around Google Earth there seem to be few elevations in that area of Cuba above 300 feet. Heck, some neighborhoods near me have that much elevation change. But we know what happened to Gustav there.
Evacuate Houston" Oh boy!!
The greatest thing was hearing the Star Spangled Banner played there on Cuban soil. That in itself was rather unusual.
And best of all, we beat them on their own soil. (Not that Cuba is good at soccer, they suck pretty bad, should have beaten them 5-0).
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