Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Outer eyewall means the storm is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). This is a common occurrence with strong hurricanes. During the ERC, the storm winds weaken, and the minimum central pressure usually increases.
Is there something similar for internet based tv stations? Many of them seem to have excellent coverage.
Ch. 13 in Orlando just said Florida is looking less and less in the cone.
You are welcome. Stay safe! Yes. I am praying for Cuba. they will get hammered.
At this time, the lower Keys are still in the cone of uncertainty.
I know its a tough question but are there any solid estimates for surge in the Upper or Lower Keys?
I do not know, on WJBO radio station website out of BR, not dated, but I doubt it is today. Speaking of BR, anyone heard from trillabodilla, I may be spelling her nick incorrectly, but remember she was from BR.
I'm afraid we may not get a trend before midnight if then. We need another 80-100 miles of movement IMHO to establish any kind of trend, even then it can wobble or move almost anywhere.
Trillabodilla hasn’t posted since September 1st.
http://www.neworleanscitybusiness.com/uptotheminute.cfm?recid=19906&userID=0&referer=dailyUpdate
~~~
Power still out in much of that area...
Thank you, must still be without power. I heard 21 days for many areas in BR until power restored.
If my A/C was going to be out for 3 weeks, I would be out of here.
Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) Model
The SHIPS model is a statistical-dynamic intensity prediction model. This model was developed using standard multiple regression techniques with climatological, persistence, and numerical model forecasts as predictors. Estimates of future storm intensity are made for 12-hr periods out to 120 hr.
The SHIPS equations were initially developed using data from 49 storms during the period 1982-1992 that were at least 30 nautical miles from land. (The collection of synoptic data for LBAR began in 1989, as did the archive of operational intensity forecasts. Data for selected storms during 1982-88 were available and included in the SHIPS developmental data set.) The SHIPS equations are typically updated each year.
Major changes have been the development of DSHIPS (Decay SHIPS) in 2000 to account for the decay of storms over land, the extension of the forecasts to Day 5 in 2001, the replacement of the simple dry-adiabitic prediction model in 2001 with output from the operational global model (the GFS) for the evaluation of the environmental predictors, and the inclusion of satellite-derived parameters (specifically, cloud top temperatures and oceanic heat content) in 2004.
Unlike earlier versions, the most recent versions of SHIPS have significant skill over climatology, at least out to Day 3.
The primary predictors are:
Current storm intensity;
Day of the year;
Persistence (intensity change in previous 12 hrs);
East-west compontent of storm motion;
Divergence of the wind at 200 mb;
Intensification potential (the difference between the current storm intensity and an estimate of the Maximum Possible Storm Intensity determined from the sea surface temperature);
The vertical shear of the horizontal wind in the 850-200 mb layer;
Average 200 mb temperature;
Average 850 mb vorticity;
Average 500-300 mb layer relative humidity;
Cloud top temperature as measured by the GOES satellite infrared imager channel and
Oceanic heat content inferred from altimetry measurements from polar orbiting satellites.
Vertical wind shear is evaluated for the 850-200 mb layer because most satellite cloud track winds are assigned to those levels. The 500-300 mb relative humidity attempts to estimate the impact of any Saharan Dust Layer propagating across the Atlantic basin, which tends to inhibit storm intensitifaction. Terms 1-5 are evaluated at the initial storm location. All other terms are averaged along the forecast storm track.
Research has shown that the sea surface temperature (SST) alone does not provide a good indication of whether a storm will intensify. (See, for example the SST/Intensity relationships of recent Atlantic tropical cyclones.) However, SST does provide an upper limit to storm intensity. In SHIPS, the Maximum Possible Storm Intensity (MPI) is related to the SST by the equation:
MPI = 55.6 kt + 108.5 kt exp[0.1813 * {SST - 30.0oC)]
Since the SHIPS equations were developed using data from storms that were over water, the SHIPS intensity forecasts are not valid for storms near the coast. In 2000 a new version of the model, called Decay SHIP (DSHP), was introduced. The DSHP is identical to the SHIPS model except, if the cyclone is forecast to cross land, the intensity is reduced accordingly. The DSHIPS model had the smallest errors at all forecast periods during the 2000 Atlantic season.
References: DeMaria, M. and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 326-337.
DeMaria, M. et al., 2005: Futher improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531-543.
Relative Skill of the Intensity Guidance Models
These graphs shows the skill of the intensity guidance models for the past two seasons | Note that the skill for intensity is typically much less than that for storm track, and has not improved substantially in recent years.
If there is, I’m not aware of it.
on a lighter note ... any idea when they will close the bridges if I want to try to get back down there before the storm hits?
.
Gotcha.
I have a 3 year old and I’m trying to figure out whether and when to evac. and the track is anywhere from the Fl Panhandle to Mexico. It gets frustrating so I’m trying to put the clues together using the best model possible.
You are a treasure NN. Thanks for the response.
I don’t know of any predictions at all for the keys, yet. The lastest frames make it look as if the nearly due West course is resumed, and that it has not turned at all... so, false alarm... It looks like it was simply a jog north after Gr.Inagua.
Right now, it is not clear that the Keys are in Ike’s sights. Cuba sure is.
Thank you.
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