Posted on 09/06/2008 6:37:41 AM PDT by CatOwner
Rasmussen is unchanged from yesterday, and now includes two days of Palin's speech and one day of McCain's speech. Either Wednesday was a really bad polling day for McCain, or we are overestimating the bounce, if any, that McCain-Palin got.
I'd toss in MI, PA, and WI into that mix.
The Ras methodology makes it rather hard for there to be big changes in favor of McCain. He has targetted his robot callers to sample X Dems and Y GOP with X > Y and that simply is inevitably going to give the Dems an advantage — which it should.
The fight is for the Zs. The moderate independents. The REAL FIGHT is to stop any and all efforts by the media And OURSELVES at making Palin out to be a right wing conservative. She must be painted as a moderate, or we lose.
It’s that simple. She must not be described as a right wing conservative or we lose the middle, and that’s the only place where there are votes remaining to be found.
But, between the grouchy Germans and the nutty Norwegians, that misbegotten state is and probably always will be hopelessly lost.
Right On !!! Good analysis
God Obama better hope not, because he has lost 4 points already.
In a campaign where both sides are claiming the mantle of change, moderation is the exact opposite.
What makes Palin so Powerful is that she IS Conservative, and that she IS Right Wing and that is this as a LADY.
Albeit a PITBULL LADY
Not a chance. Those three are not on the table no matter how many times Freepers post that they are.
Except one of the two campaigns is teetering rather precariously.
It may sound inspiring for "independent" voters to hear both McCain and Palin talk about how they "fought" both Republicans and Democrats, but that only cements in the minds of voters that both Republicans and Democrats are corrupt.
BTW, you should look at the number of UNCONTESTED Dem seats. I'm still waiting for an explanation as to how Palin or the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan can win without running a candidate.
I do too-—a very modest one. More than likely, Dems who don’t like Obama because he’s black will just stay home.
McCain needs to focus his money and resources into those states he needs to win, and can win, because there is absolutely no room for error the way there was when Bush squandered money on NJ, WI, MI and PA in two consecutive elections.
The more accurate polls will be out by Wednesday. Another interesting thing I heard on the BO interview was that they poll from 700-1000 people by phone. With caller ID, how many people don’t bother to answer if the number comes up Unknown?
Yes, it is.
The very premises of the Obama candidacy have been adroitly undermined.
Where McCain and Obama chose to spend their money and time will show you what these private polls tell them. That is really the opposite of what your saying.
You’re dangerously close to being on my side in this debate! What’s wrong with you?!?!
I’d like to direct FR’s attention to the following:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WI/P/00/epolls.0.html
Those are 2004’s results for Wisconsin.
And:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/P/00/epolls.0.html
This is Pennsylvania’s.
Note the number of non white men and women as a differential in the two states. 9 and 10% for PA and 4 and 6% for WI. There are fewer blacks in Wisconsin as a portion of the state.
Also, note that the GOP has a registration edge in WI, vs PA.
Bush got 14 and 16% of the black vote in WI and PA and McCain will do worse than that, but Wisconsin has so few that the natural Obama advantage is diluted.
So how did Kerry win WI? White women. White women voted Bush in PA, but in WI Kerry got an edge. This is the bulk of the Wisconsin electorate and we should expect McCain to outperform Bush there. The black vote will go more strongly for Obama, but there are fewer of them there than in PA.
Wisconsin can be grabbed. 10 Electoral Votes. It could undo loss of CO with NM and IA.
My caller ID over the years, I've been called by Rasmussen once and Gallup once. I was not home either time. I don't think they mask their calls. If they did, everyone would be predicting a landslide for Obama.
There is a falling Obama convention bounce, a rising Palin convention bounce, lousy economic news last week, falling gasoline prices, a falling stock market and a weekend with terrible weather on the East coast. There are too many variables to even try to unravel this.
There is nothing horrible about this poll result. Most of Obama’s Ras lead was a huge Monday night sample in his favor last week. It rolled off Friday.
The Ras methodology holds X Dems, Y GOP and Z Inds constant. You are not going to flip any more Dems than already have. The GOP number is not going to change either.
It’s all about the Zs.
Keep very firmly in mind that the Zs do not care about abortion. It’s not interesting to them. What they DON’T want to see with regard to abortion is anyone telling them the answer MUST be in either direction. They aren’t profoundly Christian or religious in general. The one thing they DON’T want to see happen as regards religion is any expansion of its role in life. They don’t want it suppressed. They don’t want it expanded.
They care a little about guns. Some pro and some anti. They care a lot about taxes. They care a lot about the economy. They care a lot about oil and security.
It is about those subjects that Palin should be talking, especially in the battleground states that are not profoundly conservative or liberal. If she does that, she can grab some women votes.
I am one, married to the other.
Graduated form Brookfield Central High School & UW.
Not true. Campaign pollsters can be just as off as public pollsters. Again, Bush poured money into NJ, PA, WI, MI with absolutely no effect, and did so again in 2004. The raw numbers in WI didn’t vary by even 1,000 votes!!
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