My caller ID over the years, I've been called by Rasmussen once and Gallup once. I was not home either time. I don't think they mask their calls. If they did, everyone would be predicting a landslide for Obama.
There is a falling Obama convention bounce, a rising Palin convention bounce, lousy economic news last week, falling gasoline prices, a falling stock market and a weekend with terrible weather on the East coast. There are too many variables to even try to unravel this.
There is nothing horrible about this poll result. Most of Obama’s Ras lead was a huge Monday night sample in his favor last week. It rolled off Friday.
The Ras methodology holds X Dems, Y GOP and Z Inds constant. You are not going to flip any more Dems than already have. The GOP number is not going to change either.
It’s all about the Zs.
Keep very firmly in mind that the Zs do not care about abortion. It’s not interesting to them. What they DON’T want to see with regard to abortion is anyone telling them the answer MUST be in either direction. They aren’t profoundly Christian or religious in general. The one thing they DON’T want to see happen as regards religion is any expansion of its role in life. They don’t want it suppressed. They don’t want it expanded.
They care a little about guns. Some pro and some anti. They care a lot about taxes. They care a lot about the economy. They care a lot about oil and security.
It is about those subjects that Palin should be talking, especially in the battleground states that are not profoundly conservative or liberal. If she does that, she can grab some women votes.