Posted on 09/05/2008 11:53:49 AM PDT by varina davis
Crist on Ike: Evacuations may be necessary
Friday, September 5, 2008
TALLAHASSEE (Bay News 9) -- Gov. Charlie Crist says the danger to Florida posed by Hurricane Ike is real and growing.
He will head to Miami on Saturday to meet with local officials from the four-county South Florida region, and says it may become necessary to evacuate as many as 1.3-million people from the low-lying Keys, mobile home parks and other vulnerable areas.
Another possibility, Crist said, is converting I-95 to one-way northbound traffic, if necessary, to make a mass exodus more efficient. Ike is a Category 3 storm packing 120-mile-per-hour winds and is projected to reach the Florida peninsula on Tuesday.
"When they (evacuations) might start is sometime later," Crist said. "This storm is still a long way away but we want to be prepared. We want to lean forward ... and make sure we're ahead of the curve."
The weather this weekend, for a full schedule of college and pro football, is projected to be great across the state -- literally the calm before the storm.
State meteorologist Ben Nelson urged Floridians to take advantage and be fully prepared for the wrath of Ike. "There's no excuse," Nelson said.
Evacuation of Dade-Broward would be a disaster in itself..............
If Ike was to hit Miami area as a major hurricane, it will be a real disaster. Also, I am keep an eye on it too. It could end up making a landfall in SE Texas. If Ike made landfall on Miami and Houston area, that would be the worst disaster one can imagine.
and possibly come into the Gulf.
Miami actually got very lucky with Andrew, had the storm hit a mere 10 miles to the north, the damage would easily had been tripled, as with Andrew there was little storm surge damage in Miami, but mainly damage from the winds.
I live in Boca and am working in Ft. Myers this week and next (except for the weekend). Both are in the cone - so will I spend next week on the east coast or the west coast? I know you discerning people want to know. This one could be nasty if it hits anywhere in Florida.
I’m in the Keys we may get out tomorrow, not sure.
I hope hollywood charlie take nelson with him were ever he goes.
Yeah I know but they keep bumping it further south, we may stay here if we get better tracking.
It was a very close call with Andrew. Actually, Miami would not have to worry much about storm surge, but higher waves because the water off the coast of Miami is much deeper than off the coast of Mississippi. If a Katrina sized storm went over Miami, they would only get storm surge as high as 18 feet at most. Storm surge is a function of large the storm is, depth of water, angular motion of the storm and speed.
Here’s a formula I saw in Kerry Emanuel’s book, Divine Wind.
h = 0.00035 * V^2 L / H
V=Wind in mph
L=Length of box miles
H=Average depth of water in feet
It assumes no friction.
Example:
h = 0.00035 * (100^2*100) / 30
h = 11.67 feet
Hitting Northern Cuba and brushing the Florida Keys.
However, the Northern Gulf Coast may have a storm to follow Gustav around September 12-14...
5 day tracking is error prone...
NHC Webpage (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)
updates every 6 hours and sometimes has special updates in between:
5 AM EDT, 11 AM EDT, 5 PM EDT and 11 PM EDT.
Northern Gulf Coast (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle) may know more on the track Monday -- if it does loop East or turn more East and hit Southern/Central Florida on the Gulf Coast...
Well, here is is about a week later and we Texans are getting it>
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