Advice: Disregard All The Polls (Rush: Don't Pay Attention to MSM/Driveby Polls Alert)

Rush Limbaugh.com ^ | 9/04/2008 | Rush Limbaugh

[goldstategop]

RUSH: Here is Lisa in Orange County, California. It's great that you waited. I appreciate it, Lisa.

CALLER: Thank you, Rush. It's an honor to speak to you. It's about the sixth time I've been able to call you and it's just a thrill every time I get to talk to you.

RUSH: Thank you. One thing.

CALLER: Yep!

RUSH: I need to ask a favor. Please don't say so, because you are hurting the feelings of those who have been trying for 20 years and have nothing but a busy signal.

CALLER: Ohhh. I'm sorry. But I'm a high school government teacher here in Orange County that has talked to you a few times, and I am so pumped up about last night. I think Sarah Palin is just exactly what we needed. But the point of my call is, last week during the Democratic convention, after every single star-studded performance or whatever happened, you had the polls out there measuring -- trying to measure -- the bounce.

RUSH: There wasn't any bounce. There wasn't any bounce to speak of.

CALLER: Ha! Exactly. But this week, I haven't seen any of the liberal pollsters coming out because I think the bounce is too huge to Americas I think it's going to be over the top.

RUSH: I want to warn you of just the opposite.

CALLER: Really?

RUSH: Yes. Who runs polling units? Who pays for them? It's the ABC/Washington Post poll.

CALLER: Right.

RUSH: Who is their candidate?

CALLER: Obama.

RUSH: The New York Times/CBS poll.

CALLER: Obama.

RUSH: Right.

CALLER: This is my point.

RUSH: The NBC/Wall Street Journal. Just follow me on this.

CALLER: Okay.

RUSH: I'm host.

CALLER: Yes, I'm sorry. RUSH: You're a veteran caller but I'm still more experienced than you.

CALLER: (laughing) You are, and you're the king.

RUSH: NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, who do you think their candidate is?

CALLER: Obama.

RUSH: Okay. USA Today/Gallup, who do you think their candidate is?

CALLER: Obama.

RUSH: Uhhhh, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics?

CALLER: I -- I -- Gosh, that's a tough one. I want to say Obama, but Fox, they're too fair.

RUSH: They're down the middle. And then the other one is Rasmussen, and Rasmussen just does it on his own, he's not tied to anybody. His polls and Zogby. No, Zogby's with Reuters. Reuters is a bunch of communists from Europe. So here's how these polls are used. All of these polls want credibility at the end of the day. They want to be right on the presidential results. So the only poll you should pay attention to are these polls in the last seven days; maybe even fewer days than that, maybe the last two.

CALLER: Mmm-hmm.

RUSH: Because up until those two days before -- the weekend before -- the election, that's polls are going to be used to shape public opinion. The last poll I saw that had Obama up five had a 26% Republican voter sample. I don't remember which poll it was. So be very careful on these polls. I will be stunned if I see a huge, huge McCain... Well, bounces are sort of traditional.

CALLER: Right.

RUSH: But this is a new time because this is the first time we've had back-to-back conventions in a long time. So the conventional wisdom is (which means that you can forget it) is that the polling bounces are irrelevant because there's not enough time between the conventions for voters to settle down and then get reignited. So I would just caution you, if you see polling numbers that shows McCain still two points down after Sarah Palin, the reason is to depress you.

CALLER: Exactly. Yeah. I hear you, and just... You know, when I look at Sarah Palin and her smile and her just demeanor, and I think of Michelle "Amarosa" Obama, her angry demeanor.

RUSH: Yeah, well, she was masking the anger. Here's another thing about the polls, though.

CALLER: Mmm-hmm.

RUSH: If the polls in the next say three or four days come out and McCain and Palin get a huge bounce, be very wary. They can create this big bounce, and then over the next weeks it can erode, and they can use the polls to show that Obama and Biden are really fighting back and that they have the momentum!

CALLER: Yeah.

RUSH: Polls today, Lisa, are designed to do one thing, and that's create news under the guise of sampling public opinion.

CALLER: Yeah. I agree.

RUSH: They're just the ability for the editorial page to get its opinion on the front page.

CALLER: I agree. I absolutely agree. Once again, I do not disagree with Rush.

RUSH: Well, it's hard to disagree with me, I know. Some people --

CALLER: (laughs) It is.

RUSH: -- still try, but it's very hard.

CALLER: You're wonderful, Rush, and --

RUSH: The only place I'm ever wrong is like every man, and that's at home.

CALLER: Well, you play such an important role for us and for our country, and I just really, truly appreciate you. Again, I'm going to be using your knowledge and your wisdom in my class this fall. I cannot wait to get in the classroom.

RUSH: Terrific. I appreciate that. That makes me happy. Thank you very much.

CALLER: You're welcome. Have a great day.

RUSH: You do the same.

[goldstategop]

Rush's right. All MSM/Driveby polls should be banned from Free Republic. They're designed to not only promote the media's candidate by shaping public opinion in his favor - they're completely inaccurate. Every presidential poll from the MSM/Drivebys had the final result wrong. Disregard them all!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Nachoman]

During the 2000 election, people were discounting Gore’s high polling numbers as being MSM opinion. As it turned out, Gore was drawing the votes that the polls predicted.

We dismiss high poll numbers for Obama at our peril.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Polls today, Lisa, are designed to do one thing, and that's create news under the guise of sampling public opinion...for the editorial page to get its opinion on the front page

So damn true.

[Gorzaloon]

Another sinister motive I do not see discussed, and possibly more real, is that by making an election look close, and possibly tied, they are whipping up their advertising revenues by stampeding the campaigns of both sides to SPEND MORE BECAUSE THEY MIGHT BE LOSING, or are ALMOST WINNING.

If you were dying media you would be thinking at least as much of your job as of your ideology. They cannot lose. Another benefit would be to bankrupt whichever campaign you hated.

Billions are at stake here.

[RED SOUTH]

But consider 2004. After the debates started , they had Kerry up and had Kerry up big in final exit polls on election day. With each election cycle , they get more
desperate.

[yazoo]

When Reagan ran against Carter the polls broke loose in the last 7 days. It had been up and down with both of them holding steady. The last 7 days it plummeted for Carter and Pat Caddell, Carter’s pollster, told him it was all over several days before the election. You could tell by the desperate tone of Carter’s speeches, begging Democrats to “come home.”

[RichInOC]

Not so much disregard them, as...just realize that what they say now is not necessarily what they’ll say in two months, much less what the election results will say in two months. We can do this. Let’s make it happen.

[LALALAW]

I remember this well as the formative experience with presidential election polls. The polls did not “Break.” The media had a much higher sence of self preservation then and did not want to be exposed as wrong. You can smell it. If the debates go poorly for the Dems, Obamarama is over.

[El Cid]

I've noticed this also - at least the last couple of Presidential election cycles.
The polls mysteriously rush towards reality in the last one or two days before the actual election. I seriously doubt it is because people are making up their minds in the last minute -- its just that the pollsters can have the best of both worlds. They can use their earlier 'poll results' to push their opinions (and discourage the opposition) -- but they only need to match reality (to uphold their credibility) on their last poll. That way they can claim that their polls matched the actual election results. I agree - the polls between now and the day before the election can be rigged, and the pollsters don't need to worry about accountability -- its only their last poll that matters.

[BigEdLB]

Just lo9ok at the internals of the polls. The poll with the 26% GOP sample is Hotline. They make odd assumption based upon who know what, mand if a poll has internals, see if the sample within the groups are consistent.

Then you look at past polls to see if there is a consistent way to sample and do your own calculation. Consistent demographicx sampe leads usually to consistemt results.

as self-party identification can change, look at ideology Conservative-Moderate-Liberal get the right and consistent proportion of those, and you can get good results

[LS]

Agree. Doesn't anyone remember 2006? Bad poll numbers were dismissed as "negativism" and "defeatism." Santorum down 10? No way, people said.

Polls are pretty accurate, folks. Now, today's CBS poll has McCain and Obama tied, after having Obama up 8 in the last poll. Is that one bogus, too?

[LS]

The problem with that hypothesis is that if you are CBS, you can't even come close to being sure they won't spend all their money with FOX or ABC.

No, I think the polls are pretty accurate, for the most part.

[ATOMIC_PUNK]

He!! i been telling people and family this stuff for years they didn't listen then but they have since clinton I've always got people asking me where they get these poler's from tim-buk-too?

lol

Then i gotta go through the whole thing again and explain the way they are meant to manipulate you it's like a light bulb snaps on behind their eyes i love seeing that reaction !

[I still care]

The MSM thought it could destroy Sarah. The stories were biased beyond belief.

Now suddenly she is the second coming. I think they are creating unnatural expectations. I like her very much, but all the hype isn’t good either.

Never forget the press is the enemy of conservatism.

[pgkdan]

I agree about media sponsored polls but I’m still following Rassmussen.

[goldstategop]

I think so. Right now they're garbage. Let's ban posting polls until a week before the election. Then they're pretty accurate. Before then, they're designed to shape opinion and as Rush says, they're all over the place. Dismiss them.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[phillyfanatic]

True. Today, Internal Polls from Obama and McCain show Obama ahead by about 8%. Yet, CBS today, showed no bounce from the DNC campaign and even between John and BO. There are 4 polls I view with some trust. RCP, Battleground, Zogby, Rasmussen are ones that I follow. We see how the media is in the tank for the Messiah and Freepers ought to react on their leftist blogs as I do to keep the pressure on them. They should also not only work for ole John and the Sarahcuda but for the lower House and Senate Republican races to cut down on the predicted losses. New Mexico Pubs have given up on a Senate seat there and Obama leads by 13% and frankly I am shocked and disappointed there. I wonder if John will campaign at all there since it is a swing state.

[yazoo]

I recall pretty clearly that the polls showed a much closer race a week before the Carter/Reagan election. During the last week of the campaign a lot of things happened to reinforce what Reagan had said in the last debate (are you better off...). During that last week economic figures came out which showed an even worsening economy. The tide shifted quickly. It’s possible the polls were wrong and Reagan was way ahead the whole time, but I do think many people were undecided and very ready to abandon Carter.

[goldfinch]

Rush's right. All MSM/Driveby polls should be banned from Free Republic. They're designed to not only promote the media's candidate by shaping public opinion in his favor - they're completely inaccurate. Every presidential poll from the MSM/Drivebys had the final result wrong. Disregard them all!

I can agree with you and Rush that the MSM polls are biased. But to ban them...why? Are we too wimpy to handle polls that may show our candidate behind? I don't think so...

One other thing...all poll want to be a close as possible to the actual result on election day. That is why they generally show the race tightening the last week. It seems pollsters are more that willing to use their polls to push their candidate right up until a few days before the election...then they start to worry about their reputation.

Polls are kind of fun...they are a way of tracking trends and of seeing how a certain event plays with public opinion. However, no one should get too high or low based on a change of a few points.

[Gondring]

Agree. Doesn't anyone remember 2006? Bad poll numbers were dismissed as "negativism" and "defeatism." Santorum down 10? No way, people said.

HERETICS!