Posted on 08/31/2008 2:56:42 PM PDT by GeeMoney
6 things Palin pick says about McCain
The selection of a running mate is among the most consequential and the most defining decisions a presidential nominee can make. John McCain’s pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin says a lot about his decision-making — and some of it is downright breathtaking.
We knew McCain is a politician who relishes improvisation and likes to go with his gut. But it is remarkable that someone who has repeatedly emphasized experience in this campaign named an inexperienced governor he barely knew to be his No. 2. Whatever you think of the pick, here are six things it tells us about McCain:
1. He’s desperate. Let’s stop pretending this race is as close as national polling suggests. The truth is McCain is essentially tied or trailing in every swing state that matters — and too close for comfort in several states, such as Indiana and Montana, that the GOP usually wins pretty easily in presidential races. On top of that, voters seem very inclined to elect Democrats in general this election — and very sick of the Bush years.
McCain could easily lose in an electoral landslide. That is the private view of Democrats and Republicans alike.
McCain’s pick shows he is not pretending. Politicians, even “mavericks” like McCain, play it safe when they think they are winning — or see an easy path to winning. They roll the dice only when they know that the risks of conventionality are greater than the risks of boldness.
The Republican brand is a mess. McCain is reasonably concluding that it won’t work to replicate George W. Bush and Karl Rove’s electoral formula, based around national security and a big advantage among Y chromosomes, from 2004.
“She’s a fresh new face in a party that’s dying for one — the antidote to boring white men,” a campaign official said.
Palin, the logic goes, will prompt voters to give McCain a second look — especially women who have watched Democrats reject Hillary Rodham Clinton for Barack Obama.
The risks of a backlash from choosing someone so unknown and so untested are obvious. In one swift stroke, McCain demolished what had been one of his main arguments against Obama.
“I think we’re going to have to examine our tag line, ‘dangerously inexperienced,’” a top McCain official said wryly.
2. He’s willing to gamble — bigtime. Let’s face it: This is not the pick of a self-confident candidate. It is the political equivalent of a trick play or, as some Democrats called it, a Hail Mary pass in football. McCain talks incessantly about experience, and then goes and selects a woman he hardly knows, who hardly knows foreign policy and who can hardly be seen as instantly ready for the presidency.
He is smart enough to know it could work, at least politically. Many Republicans see this pick as a brilliant stroke, because it will be difficult for Democrats to run hard against a woman in the wake of the Hillary Clinton drama. Will this push those disgruntled Hillary voters McCain’s way? Perhaps. But this is hardly aimed at them: It is directed at the huge bloc of independent women who could decide this election — especially those who do not see abortion as a make-or-break issue.
McCain has a history of taking dares. Palin represents his biggest one yet.
3. He’s worried about the political implications of his age. Like a driver overcorrecting out of a swerve, he chooses someone who is two years younger than the youthful Obama and 28 years younger than he is. (He turned 72 on Friday.) The father-daughter comparison was inevitable when they appeared next to each other.
4. He’s not worried about the actuarial implications of his age. He thinks he’s in fine fettle and Palin wouldn’t be performing the main constitutional duty of a vice president, which is standing by in case a president dies or becomes incapacitated. If he were really concerned about an inexperienced person sitting in the Oval Office, we would be writing about vice presidential nominee Mitt Romney or Tom Ridge or Condoleezza Rice.
There is no plausible way McCain could say that he picked Palin, who was only elected governor in 2006 and whose most extended public service was as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska (population 8,471), because she was ready to be president on Day One.
Nor can McCain argue that he was looking for someone he could trust as a close adviser. Most people know the staff at the local Starbucks better than McCain knows Palin. They met for the first time last February at a National Governors Association meeting in Washington. Then, they spoke again — by phone — on Sunday while she was at the Alaska state fair and he was at home in Arizona.
McCain has made a mockery out of his campaign's longtime contention that Barack Obama is too dangerously inexperienced to be commander in chief. Now, the Democratic ticket boasts 40 years of national experience (four years for Obama and 36 years for Joe Biden of Delaware), while the Republican ticket has 26 (McCain’s four years in the House and 22 in the Senate).
The McCain campaign has made a calculation that most voters don’t really care about the national experience or credentials of a vice president, and that Palin’s ebullient personality and reputation as a reformer who took on cesspool politics in Alaska matters more.
5. He’s worried about his conservative base. If he had room to maneuver, there were lots of people McCain could have selected who would have represented a break from Washington politics as usual. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman comes to mind (and it certainly came to McCain’s throughout the process). He had no such room. GOP stalwarts were furious over trial balloons about the possibility of choosing a supporter of abortion rights, including the possibility that he would reach out to his friend.
Palin is an ardent opponent of abortion who was previously scheduled to keynote the Republican National Coalition for Life's "Life of the Party" event in the Twin Cities this week.
“She’s really a perfect selection,” said Darla St. Martin, the co-director of the National Right to Life Committee. It is no secret McCain wanted to shake things up in this race — and he realized he was limited to a shake-up conservatives could stomach.
6. At the end of the day, McCain is still McCain. People may find him a refreshing maverick or an erratic egotist. In either event, he marches to his own beat.
On the upside, his team did manage to play to the media’s love of drama, fanning speculation about his possible choices and maximizing coverage of the decision.
On the potential downside, the drama was evidently entirely genuine. The fact that McCain only spoke with Palin about the vice presidency for the first time on Sunday, and that he was seriously considering Lieberman until days ago, suggests just how hectic and improvisational his process was.
In the end, this selection gives him a chance to reclaim the mantle of a different kind of politician intent on changing Washington. He once had a legitimate claim to this: After all, he took on his own party over campaign finance reform and immigration. He jeopardized this claim in recent months by embracing ideas he once opposed (Bush tax cuts) and ideas that appeared politically motivated (gas tax holiday).
Spontaneity, with a touch of impulsiveness, is one of the traits that attract some of McCain’s admirers. Whether it’s a good calling card for a potential president will depend on the reaction in coming days to what, for the moment, looks like the most daring vice presidential selection in generations.
You mean, other than Biden.
Alaska is a huge state in area. The logistics of managing such a wide expansive area with incredible weather conditions, would be an impressive accomplishment for any governor. Being the mayor of little Wasilla may seem like an easy matter, but when it is in Alaska, you have larger problems than anywhere on Earth. It is time to take a reality pill and stop underrating Sarah Palin.
|
The soldier to Sarah’s right must be gay - he’s looking at the other soldier across and to his right instead of looking at Sarah.
The Obama Internet War Room is in full panic mode today.
YouTube is being swamped; any clip of Sarah is being spammed by Leftists, all saying the same talking points.
They're also trying to get traction on the "Palin-Birthed-Her-Own-Granddaughter" rumor...
These guys are ex-Washington Post politburo members.
I hope everybody knows that Maryland is the most consistently Democrat voting state in the nation. Obama should need no help whatsoever in MD!
I've read that Sarah Palin is also a pilot and has a float plane. (thus my tagline)
This ploy proves it.
You mean Delaware don’t you? Biden is from Delaware.
Sure, he’s from Delaware, but exactly who did you think they’d bring in to count the ballots!
Yeah, he really stuck a red hot pocker in the Country Clubbers eyes with this BRILLIANT pick.
Actually the writer is wrong on all the experience points. She has more experience than O’Bama and that experience is far more relevant to running a government than anything that Hussein has been or done unless competence in Chicago ways and means is pertinent to the White House. It is not a non-issue because every time it is raised the comparison is inevitably and disadvantageously with Hussein. The other guy on the Democrat ticket now doesn’t even count. He might as well be a cardboard cutout.
Palin is the politically perfect candidate for this particular election. After a couple of years as VP, especially if she functions in the manner of a Cheney, i.e. has a real job, she will be quite ready to be the next president after McCain. Right now it is my fantasy to see the primary election in 2016 or, God forbid, in 2012 be a contest between Palin and Jindal or between the two on one ticket against whoever.
ALL of the talk about Palin’s “inexperience” serves only to cast her in a light much more favorable to her than to Hussein.
You need to take those grapes back to Publix. They are pretty sour.
Someone is desperate, but I'm not convinced it's the man who made a better pick than Biden or either voters' choice.
Four presidents generally ranked in the top fifteen by historians have had experience comparable to Governor Palin’s prior to assuming office: Franklin Roosevelt, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Grover Cleveland.
Sarah Palin spent four years as a City Council Member for Wasilla, Alaska, two years as Mayor of Wasilla, and two years as Governor of Alaska.
FDR spent just over two years in the New York State Senate, eight years as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and four years as Governor of New York.
Theodore Roosevelt spent some time in the New York State Assembly(?), two years as Governor of New York, two years as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, and less than one year as Vice President of the United States.
Woodrow Wilson spent eight years as President of Princeton University and two years as Governor of New Jersey.
Grover Cleveland spent two years as Sheriff of Erie County, two years as Mayor of Buffalo, and two years as Governor of New York.
Overall, I’d say that Palin’s background is comparable with that of several presidents considered highly successful, even considering that her state has a smaller population than the other two states on the list.
In contrast, I was unable to find a single President of the United States who had a complete absence of executive experience and as little legislative experience as Obama’s four years in the United States Senate after eight years in the state senate. While there were several presidents with experience comparable to Biden’s 25 years in the United States Senate, his notable accomplishments tend to be in the direction of millions of dollars per year in earmarks for his district rather than reducing wasteful spending or fighting corruption in either his own party or in Washington as a whole.
While Obama has been running for office for as long as Palin has been running a state, I find it hard to consider the two tasks as comparable preparation.
One final note: I will be posting this multiple times because I think it is important to get the word out that that her experience is in keeping with previous presidents. I apologize to those who are annoyed by seeing it too often.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.