Posted on 08/31/2008 12:48:35 PM PDT by xzins
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.
Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46%
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I've long considered Rasmussen the most consistent, unbiased pollster. He called the Palin selection months ago. He called the last election to a T.
Sailors sandbag!!!!!!!!!!!!!........
In case folks missed it, here is a great interview with Cindy McCain. She talks about what a great VP Sarah Palin will be. GO McCain/Palin!
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5694261
Palin has absolutely wrecked Obama’s bounce.
We are now seeing the impact after 2 days of a 3 day rolling average. That means tomorrow will show both the announcement and the pushback that the Obama DemoncRat media have been engaged in.
McCain masterfully killed what is traditionally a double digit bounce.
And we haven’t even begun to see the effect of McCain’s masterstroke on state-by-state results....the true key to the election, given the electoral college.
Thanks, Seekthetruth
Obama wants to raise taxes and kill babies.
Palin wants to raise babies and kill taxes.
Testing....testing....
Incoming tag line.....
“Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis)” Rasmussen, 2008).
Wow, that’s the first time I’ve heard her. I am VERY impressed with her. The whole Pub situation has turned around in my eyes.
Does anyone know the party affiliation percentage for all Americans? Shouldn’t the polls be based on that percentage?
bump
Told everyone these polls were a huge stack of cow dung.
To agitate the Demo rats even more, McCain steals the wind from their sails with the Palin pick on Friday. So far the news has been all about Pailn and NOT about NObama and his lamo stale speech he gave.
The writing is on the wall.
McCain/Palin
Good pollsters allow voters to self-identify with a party, as it's an indication of overall sentiment. Since the weighting for Democrats was .8% less in August than in July, that's an indication that fewer voters are self-identifying with the Dems. IOW, good news...
So, we got two chances of cutting into it again, John McCain’s acceptance speech, then the debates.
I still feel like this is a basketball game, team down 5 to 6 points, keeping it close, but never can get over the hump. Hope time doesn’t run out for McCain.
Rasmussen lets the person determine which party they side with. It’s not been popular lately to be “republican” so many are not giving that answer.
Nonetheless, with that 40/32/28 breakout, the race is still within 3 points...the margin of error. That means that even though they say they’re democrats, they don’t like the democrat candidate. Even though they say they’re independent, they are breaking for McCain/Palin.
That’s good news.
Rasmussen never wavered in 2004 and 2006. He had it nailed from the beginning, AND the results of the actual vote aligned with his polling.
That is not entirely indefensible. I understand that reasoning.
But that correction factor is backward looking, meaning that if there is a trend of less Democrat-self-identification going into the election, it will understate the McCain/Palin support.
Will some of these disaffected Republicans who decided “I’m independent” come home? Will more “Democrats” see that Obama’s a shuck-n-jive con artist and turn independent again?
Time will tell.
If Ras has a 3 pt Obam lead from the rolling average right after his convention speech, we’ve got a race on our hands.
Agreed. Since the 90 day weighted average reflected 0.8% less Dems in August v July, it would seem that self-identification with the Dems dropped by over 2% in three months. So that three point race may very well already be a tossup.
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