Posted on 08/31/2008 11:45:54 AM PDT by KavMan
, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 28-30, including two days of interviewing since the close of the Democratic National Convention, finds Barack Obama with a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential contest, 48% to 42%.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
What it shows was that Obama’s speech on Thursday night (which would not have reflected in Gallup polling until Sat morning) didn’t help him at all. Obama received a bump previously in the convention (according to Gallup) and is now losing it. This is probably because of Palin.
That Thursday # is still there.
Thursday’s outlier is still on there for this 3 day rolling average (Thur/Fri/Sat). Once that drops off, it will be 2-3 on Monday on Gallup. 1-2 on Monday on Zogby.
Makes you wonder about the reliability of “snapshot/rolling” polls at this point in the race. Yea, Americans heard Bill Clinton speak, and the next day Obama got a 15 point bounce. Sorry, not buying it.
If you look historically, these polls lag somewhat. I believe in 2004, the full bounce didn’t show up until about 4-5 days AFTER each convention. This year is different, so it will be 2 weeks before I believe we settle in again. With the Palin announcement, Labor Day Weekend, Gustav, and Repub convention all hitting at once, I think there is a lot of unreliability in the polls right now.
Every poll out there has been trending McCain for about 5 weeks now (both state and national). Obama’s convention bounce was the smallest in recent memory. A week from now, I believe we will be tied in these generic national polls again. There will another churn cycle around the debates. Then some stable time, and undecideds breaking the last 10 days or so. I believe 75% of the late undecideds will go for McCain. In the end, these folks will decide to go with the experienced candidate. The other factor is that the majority of Americans do NOT want the democrats to have control of the Presidency and Congress.
Yea, I just realized that. I thought when they come out with the results they count that days polling. Sheesh on me!
All this chart tells me is that Gallup “massages” the data. The daily data points don’t easily equate to the 3 day averages they are reporting, especially for Aug 28-30.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePoint-Bounce.aspx
People, this has all come up before.
The 3 day rolling average need not be pure arithmetic. Day of week and times of the day of phone calls will have adjustments provided. This 6 point lead includes Thursday night sampling, some of which had Obama’s speech included.
The attempts to do arithmetic derivation of what samples showed on what nights failed with it was applied to Rasmussen in 2004 and it probably fails now. You can’t say XXX night was 10% and the night before 7%. It’s not a simple arithmetic average.
Suffice to say Obama lost 2% of lead in 1 day. That’s all we know from the result, and it’s a lot better than seeing a 2% gain.
In your dreams. 2008 will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004 with a few, select states deciding the Electoral College.
Plus, Pennsylvania, Virginia (my state) and Ohio have changed from Red to Blue in 2006. Santorum lost, Allen lost (Gilmore (R) will lose this November to Mark Warner (D) as well) North Carolina is losing it's 'Red-ness' some and there are states out west that were solid fire-engine Red that are no longer and are trending Blue (Obama).
I'm not pessimistic. Just realistic. Many northern liberals have flooded down into Virginia and North Carolina to retire or get work that is no longer in MI, MJ, NY, WI and elsewhere. They bring their liberal voting habits with them.
NO big deal. The DNC was mostly an emotional exercise.
Therefore, we’re simply waiting for a little swing vote reasoning to kick in.
We’re doomed.
With the women’s vote being about even outside of California and NY, I think it’s a blowout win as well. Feeling better about things as the days move on. McCain by 10.
2006 results and current polls not withstanding, FReepers are starting to sense a shift in the wind. It started with Obama’s lukewarm Grand Tour bounce and his disastrous showing at the Shadowbrook interview. It continued with the anti-hope-and-change selection of Joe Biden for VP and the seething rage this created among Hillary supporters and puzzlement among young voters.
Iraq is no longer a first tier issue. The economy, cost cutting, and energy are. Sarah Palin could prove to be a very strong asset in all of these areas.
Looking ahead, we have the Republican convention, sure to provide some bounce despite Gustav, and the debates where Obama and Biden can both be expected to do poorly, based on past performances. Finally, the selection of a true conservative for VP has the right wing core of the party energized and motivated.
But the illegals will support their hero McCain.
In my estimates, the big day in both Gallup and Rasmussen samples was Wednesday, when Hillary’s speech got absorbed, and a lot of her voters finally went to Obama.
Here are my estimates:
Mo McCain +2 (Biden’s anti-bounce)
Tu Obama +7 (Michelle’s speech)
We Obama +12(Hillary’s speech)
Th Obama +6
Fr Obama +6
Sat Obama +6
Of course, any of the last numbers maybe 1 or 2 pts off.But the conclusion is clear: Obama was leading by 1 or 2 pre-Biden, got a bit of a negative bounce from Biden announcement, and then some convention bounce, for +4/+5 total bounce.
Can McCain/Palin get it back by the end of the GOP convention. It depends on their speeches and on the convention viewership, with Gustav coming to NOLA. I would be happy if Gallup goes back to +2 for Obama by next Sunday. That way McCain would stil have a chance to go ahead after the debates.
Make no mistales, Mac is the underdog, but it could’ve been much worse at this point,
DeWine did NOT run as a conservative, and lost the conservative vote. He did NOT lose because he wasn't liberal enough. Had he not done the "Gang of 14" and some of the other stuff, he would have won.
Bottom line: Ohio's is still McCain's to lose. I think he went a long way toward sealing OH with Palin. I don't see Obama winning VA, either. Allen lost to a "military guy" who was dissing Iraq, hence Webb had the best of both worlds.
The states to watch are CO, NM, NV, and NH. McCain just needs CO plus one of the other three to win., or all the other three (if I've done my math right).
2006 was not lost due to vote fraud. It was lost due to insufficient conservatism in OH; to a bad matchup with a military guy in VA; to corruption in WY. (I still can't explain Talent's loss in MO). But here in OH, the Dem. Strickland beat Ken Blackwell, then has proceeded to govern FAR more conservatively than did the GOP incumbent, Bob Taft. In other words, conservative policies are still the rule of the day.
ZOGBY: McCain/Palin 47% Obama/Biden 45%...
GALLUP DAILY: OBAMA HOLDS; UP BY 8...
The polls are just media tools. They can sample your welfare whales in line and make it look like Obama will mop the floor with McCain and suppress the GOP vote.
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