The would make the race dead even. IIRC, during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama's favor from the actual results. IOW, some folks just don't want to say they aren't voting for him.
I wonder too where the polls are taken. If it’s national, it’s not as important apas a battleground poll. I’m more concerned about ohio, PA , minnesota, NH, Missouri than I am about New York Or California.
“...during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama’s favor from the actual results...”
Not in Rasmussen. I compared Ras’ results to the actual election outcomes and found only one state, California, where Obama underperformed his polling, and then only by one point. Pollster.com did a similar study using polling averages and found that Obama outperformed his polling 2/3 more often than Hillary did.
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.