Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Lead 49% to 41% (Bump stops cold - 8/30/08)
gallup ^

Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.

...

The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; 2008polls; electionpresident; gallup; mccain; obama
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100 ... 121-130 next last
To: flyfree

dissapointing....


61 posted on 08/30/2008 11:19:50 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: puroresu
The bounce Obama got for a couple of nights were in response the Hillary’s speech (Tues.) and Bill’s speech (Wed.). It’s terrible news for him that the poll flatlined after his own Greek god speech.

That is a great point that is being overlooked by many.

By my calculations, Obama lead McCain roughly 56-38 the day after Hillary spoke. Tough to know the exact number because you never get the true starting point with a rolling poll.

He polled a double digit lead the day after the Rapist in Chief spoke as well. The results from yesterday would have shown him with a very slight lead. In other words, his numbers plummeted the day after his big speech.

Great news for us, although we need to realize we are still behind right now. We can definitely catch up, but we have a lot of work to do if we want to win in November. Lets not get complacent.

62 posted on 08/30/2008 11:22:14 AM PDT by comebacknewt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Mogollon

everyone can argue over methodology and impact, but the bottom line is this -

BO +8 w reg voters
BO +4 w likely voters

this ain’t good news for the RATS

they know they are in trouble. look where BO & JO are today - in PA and OH because their lead in those states is slim or nonexistent


63 posted on 08/30/2008 11:23:09 AM PDT by mwl8787
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 55 | View Replies]

To: LadyNavyVet
Neither Carter nor Clinton had a convention bounce of 10 points in the gallup registered voter poll.

Pretty sure Clinon had a 17 point bounce in 1992.

64 posted on 08/30/2008 11:25:24 AM PDT by LdSentinal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 57 | View Replies]

To: wmfights

I wonder too where the polls are taken. If it’s national, it’s not as important apas a battleground poll. I’m more concerned about ohio, PA , minnesota, NH, Missouri than I am about New York Or California.


65 posted on 08/30/2008 11:25:24 AM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: Owen
They do not include cellphones. This can matter.

The rest of your post was on the money, but this is wrong.

Gallup DOES poll cell phones. They use a random number dialer, and they do indeed reach cell phone users.

66 posted on 08/30/2008 11:25:35 AM PDT by comebacknewt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: wmfights

“...during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama’s favor from the actual results...”

Not in Rasmussen. I compared Ras’ results to the actual election outcomes and found only one state, California, where Obama underperformed his polling, and then only by one point. Pollster.com did a similar study using polling averages and found that Obama outperformed his polling 2/3 more often than Hillary did.

All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.


67 posted on 08/30/2008 11:26:15 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: LdSentinal

Where were the polls before Perot quit. I thought Perot had a lead, then quit and Clinton surged ahead and never lost his lead. He ended up winning by 5 I believe.


68 posted on 08/30/2008 11:26:43 AM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

Thanx, folks, I didn’t know cellphones were in the Gallup methods now. How . . . do they manage to get regional balance with cellphones?


69 posted on 08/30/2008 11:28:12 AM PDT by Owen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies]

To: mainerforglobalwarming
Just beware that their will be a flood of polls released next week that will have been taken at the height of Obama's popularity.

They are going to show big leads for him, and the MSM is going to be trumpeting the race as being over. While completely predictable, it is not accurate.

Obama is slightly ahead right now, but McCain is still well positioned. A well run convention, and strong campaign from here on out can definitely propel him to the White House.

70 posted on 08/30/2008 11:28:41 AM PDT by comebacknewt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: LdSentinal

In this poll, Gallup registered voters, Clinton got a 16 point bounce in ‘92 and 5 point bounce in ‘96. Carter got a smaller bounce in ‘76, when he won, than he did in 1980 when he lost.

My statement is true. Both Carter and Clinton went on to win elections after getting a bounce lower than 10 points. IOW, convention bounces give us polling wonks something to talk about, but they mean very little.

I’ll say it again, we will not know the true state of this race until a week or so after the Pubbie convention.


71 posted on 08/30/2008 11:31:44 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: flyfree

Yeah, but even though it’s registered voters, it’s still a damn big eight points.


72 posted on 08/30/2008 11:32:24 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LadyNavyVet
Most every candidate underperforms their actual poll numbers because pollsters have a large number of "undecideds" in their results. The interesting thing about Obama is that the number he reached in the polls was almost always all he actually got on election day. There were a couple of exceptions, but not many at all.

So, either his opponents got virtually every single undecided voter out there, or else some people were telling pollsters they were undecided when they actually had made up their minds to vote for Obama's opponent.

Either way, it is likely to work for us and not against us on election day.

73 posted on 08/30/2008 11:32:51 AM PDT by comebacknewt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 67 | View Replies]

To: LadyNavyVet

>>
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.
>>

There is a factor that could be more powerful this election than others. A Popular Vote/Electoral Vote digression is perhaps more likely this year than in others because of the Obama can “run up the score” in cities of states he’ll already win like Illinois and California.


74 posted on 08/30/2008 11:33:05 AM PDT by Owen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 67 | View Replies]

To: puroresu

***It’s terrible news for him that the poll flatlined after his own Greek god speech.***

When I saw the Messiah give his sermon in Denver speech, I thought it was entertaining. Two days later, I can’t remember anything he said.


75 posted on 08/30/2008 11:33:37 AM PDT by yongin (Palin changed AK in a way we can believe in)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt
This is the first time in a while that I can say I'm glad to be a republican. I almost opted out when McCain was nominated, nearly registered as an independent. But knowing that Palin is the pick, and she will be President one day has lifted my spirits to say the least. If the rest of the base is energized as I am, this race is over. Kerry lost by 3 million votes. Add in a few million of hillary’s supporters, with a few million illegals voting for the Amnesty kid and the race is over. The problem is stopping McCain after the election. But we've got a few months to work on that and enjoy life.
76 posted on 08/30/2008 11:34:17 AM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 70 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
Why not poll likely voters?

Because a registered voter poll is the cheap and dirty way!

Likely voter polls cost far more in time and money.

77 posted on 08/30/2008 11:35:48 AM PDT by freespirited
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 1-Eagle
"The EC has him back down to 10." That's the key. It's really down to five or six states, depending on the mix: OH, FL, VA have to go to McCain. Good news? He's ahead in four of the last six OH polls, split the last two FL polls. I personally think he has these states pretty safe. VA close, but also his.

The other three are CO (McCain leads in latest, but it's been very close); NV (Obama still has a 5 point lead there) and either NM or NH (both Obama in the latest).

McCain can win with NV and CO, or lose NV and win with NM and NH. But he can't lose all three and win, because he isn't going to take MI or NJ, as much as Freepers keep posting that it's possible

78 posted on 08/30/2008 11:36:00 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: yongin
When I saw the Messiah give his sermon in Denver speech, I thought it was entertaining. Two days later, I can’t remember anything he said.

What I remember falls into two categories:

* increased taxes and spending

* lies about Republicans

79 posted on 08/30/2008 11:37:02 AM PDT by freespirited
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 75 | View Replies]

To: LS
It should get quite a bit smaller tomorrow. Obama had a huge polling day (+18 or so) after Hillary's speech that is scheduled to roll off.

If he is still up by eight or more tomorrow, it means Obama had another great polling day, which would obviously not be good for us at all.

Stay tuned.

80 posted on 08/30/2008 11:37:42 AM PDT by comebacknewt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 72 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100 ... 121-130 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson