[LadyNavyVet]

“...during the primaries there was always a discrepancy of about 4 pts in Obama’s favor from the actual results...”

Not in Rasmussen. I compared Ras’ results to the actual election outcomes and found only one state, California, where Obama underperformed his polling, and then only by one point. Pollster.com did a similar study using polling averages and found that Obama outperformed his polling 2/3 more often than Hillary did.

All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.

[comebacknewt]

Most every candidate underperforms their actual poll numbers because pollsters have a large number of "undecideds" in their results. The interesting thing about Obama is that the number he reached in the polls was almost always all he actually got on election day. There were a couple of exceptions, but not many at all.

So, either his opponents got virtually every single undecided voter out there, or else some people were telling pollsters they were undecided when they actually had made up their minds to vote for Obama's opponent.

Either way, it is likely to work for us and not against us on election day.

[Owen]

>>
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win. There is no vote fairy coming to save him. Maybe Palin will change the calculus; we will know in a week or so.
>>

There is a factor that could be more powerful this election than others. A Popular Vote/Electoral Vote digression is perhaps more likely this year than in others because of the Obama can “run up the score” in cities of states he’ll already win like Illinois and California.

[wmfights]

Not in Rasmussen. I compared Ras’ results to the actual election outcomes and found only one state, California, where Obama underperformed his polling, and then only by one point.

Thanks for the info.

All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win.

I think he will. I've really been impressed how he's handled himself and the aggressive campaigning during the Rat convention.